Forex Signal (Thursday march 8, 2012 - 7:45am) EDT - EU ECB Interest Rate

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant

Please see my attached trade plan:

EU ECB Interest Rate
Forecast: 1.00%
Previous 1.00%
Pair to trade: EUR/USD
Triggers we need: 0.25 BUY / -0.25 SELL

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released monthly

See special EURO analysis

About our Triggers:
It is unlikely the ECB will hike rates to 1.25%. We will BUY EUR/USD as per my method of trading below.
The same rule will apply if the ECB suddenly decides to lower the rate, which seems more likely to 0.75 Should the ECB decrease rates, please look for a short term possible SELL of the EUR/USD pair. This will be a widely watched release considering all the issues the ECB are facing with Greece, Portugal and now Italy. It is very important that you stay diligent during this release, as in 45 minutes (after news release) President Mario Draghi, of the ECB, will make either bullish or dovish comments. These comments will have a long term effect on the EUR/USD and the direction it will face.

If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation that the market will move 60-70 pips within 2 spikes in the first 15 minutes, after news release.

What is it? Why do we care?
The European Central Bank (ECB) decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR
A lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR

Method to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

The rate decision is often priced in the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference, held 45 minutes after the news release.

I would recommend spike trading as the best option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

I will look for a 30% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade.
I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level, or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 minute time frame. I would not stay in this trade longer than 25 minutes, due to the ECB Press Conference.

Historical Chart and Data for ECB Interest rate

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
Last edited: