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Forex Signal (Thursday September 1, 2011 – 4:30am EDT) – UK Manufacturing PMI

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 31, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    NOTE: This report is scheduled for 4:28AM if you are trading SPIKE

    UK Manufacturing PMI
    Forecast 49.6
    Previous 49.1
    Pair to trade: GBP/USD


    Numbers we need:
    BUY GBP/USD if we get 52.8 or higher
    SELL GBP/USD if we 46.4 or lower


    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: on the first business day after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 30 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    UK Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to arrive at 49.6
    We are looking for a deviation of 3.2 either way on this trade.
    If we get 52.8 or better I will look to enter a LONG position on GBP/USD and if we get
    46.4 or lower I will go SHORT on GBP/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 30 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike, Please use 10 pip slippage control or limit order

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

    Historical Chart and Data for UK Manufacturing PMI

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. unkle

    unkle Recruit

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    hello

    You should change the time of that news publication
    because it isn't at 10:30 but 10:28 !!!! (of course in my time zone)
    the mistake is both in here and in the calendar
    last month it Was the same but it was changed after the news

    best regards
     
  3. yurps

    yurps Private

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    too wide

    ADP too tight, uk manf pmi...too wide...this news release is hot
     
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    A deviation of 3.2 is standard conservative trigers if you want risker trigers you can use a deviation of 2.5
     
  5. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ;)

    Thanks yes the calendar is a bit deceiving; I made a note on the trade plan.

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
  6. ernest02

    ernest02 Private

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    Timing of UK announcements

    I was waiting to jump in this morning at the UK Manufacturing PMI news, but was caught unawares when the spike happened two minutes before the announcement was expected, i.e. 4:28 EDT)

    This has happened before to me on other announcements which unfortunately I cannot remember now which ones they were.

    Do the news get released before the 4:30 EDT deadline - or why the early spike?
     
  7. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    the times are published as per the calendar, I will need to amend the UK time to 4:28 as the data some times comes out earlier
     

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