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Forex Signal (Tue, April 06, 00:30 EST) Australian Interest Rate

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Apr 5, 2010.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ***************
    UPDATE:
    ________


    It seems that about 60% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expects Australian C.B. to raise the rates. But that also means that 40% of them don't expect Australian to raise the rates. That means we have a sure trade here.

    If they do, in fact, raise the rates to 4.25% or even higher, AUD/USD would go up by 70 pips or even more.
    If they do not raise the rates so the rates will stay at 4.00 level, AUD/USD would go down by 70 pips or even more.

    If you use autoclick software, such as Fast Economic News, then it is a buy signal on 0.00 or +0.25 deviation (because 4.25 is expected) and it is a sell signal on -0.25 deviation (because it is expected it will be 4.25 but it was 4.00).

    Keep in mind that historically it was very hard to get a fill on the Australian Interest Rate report but we will see....

    More info here: http://www.smh.com.au/business/close-call-tipped-for-rba-rate-decision-20100406-rnyo.html

    Please keep in mind that those estimates may still change as we get closer to the release. Also, after the release there might be a commentary released that may significantly affect the price action.

    ***************

    Hi there :)

    This is Crazy Cat with a potentially profitable trading opportunity...

    Tuesday, April 06th (00:30 New York Time) AUSTRALIA

    We have Australian interest rate statement coming out. It is expected they raise the rates from 4.00 to 4.25%.

    I recommend trading AUD/USD for this report.

    Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the AUD/USD by going to this link: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex.../7334-australian-interest-rate-statement.html

    The trigger for this indicator is 0.25. If it comes out at 4.00% or lower, AUD/USD will probably go down by 70 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If they raise the rates to 4.50% (highly unlikely), AUD/USD should go up by at least 70 pips.

    I might revise this signal as we get closer to the report. The key here is how many economists expects them to hike the rates and how many expects them to keep the rates at the same level. Those numbers very often change as we get closer to the report. For example, sometimes when there is 40/60% or 50/50% chance for a rate hike or no hike, either signal is tradable.

    Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

    To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report click here: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...atement-after-spike-retracement-strategy.html

    For example: on February 1st, Australian interest rate came out at 3.75, versus an expectation of 4.00. AUD/USD went down by around 130 pips. See for yourself what happened on this chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

    I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link: Forex News Trading | Details and History for AUD Interest Rate Statement

    I hope you make some money on this report.
    -Crazy Cat
     
    #1 Crazy Cat, Apr 5, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. wanelad

    wanelad Recruit

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    Crazy from that last chart looks like straight down hill, I am assuming it would be pretty hard to get on board unless jumped in prior with speculation? :) Good idea for the trade but not sure how one would enter once the ann is out
     
  3. fredpipster

    fredpipster Private

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    don't forget, as crazy cat suggested in the after spike strategy, if the news are in our favour you can enter into this trade in about 40 pips of the prerelease price... as during the news time most of the brokers won't let you into the trade at exact time of the news release you can still try after the release and get some nice pips with this trade...
     
  4. rexdale

    rexdale Recruit

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    rexdale

    re :australian report-why woudn t most brokers let me in at exact time of the release ? Can anybody explain ? Thanks.:)
     
  5. mikecarignan

    mikecarignan Recruit

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    some will let you in with nice slippage- others might keep you out with requotes...
     
  6. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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    I have been trading the news for at least 4 years now. Bottom line is brokers despise filling your orders around any significant news release now. Interest rate releases have to be the hardest to get in to when especially if there is a deviation from the expected number. Liquidity basically drops and mostly all brokers will not fill limit/stop orders at your price. If they do you will be slipped many pips possibly resulting in a loss for you. Do not try to chase the market if you see price drop or rise in a big way. You cannot trade on emotions. You really need software like Secret News Weapon to get data as it comes out AND for it to trigger automatic trades for you.
     
  7. West Coast Pips

    West Coast Pips Sergeant

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    Thanks Crazy Cat for the Bloomberg info about economist predictions on the RBA rate hike in less than 2 hours. I can never get hold of the economist prediction. This will be a sure trade no matter what happens (i.e. deviations). Let's see if our brokers give us entry though!
     
  8. Dubai

    Dubai Private, 1st Class

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    No fill for me, got the order through but execution was woeful, around 4-5 seconds. Ah well, guess I'll just keep having to wait for a fill!

    Hardly any PA anyway by the looks of things, very muted response. Manual entry very possible.
     
  9. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    sorry to hear that. I got bunch of fills "here and there"... I wish the spike was bigger, however...
     
  10. koco

    koco Private, 1st Class

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    that's true

    My words, if the spike was bigger I wouldn't lose. Lost 19 pips, because filled on the top of the spike. Allowed slippage of 25 pips really wasn't a good idea.
     

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