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Forex Signal (Tue, August 24 2010, 10:00am NY Time EDT) - US Existing Home Sales...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 24, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    US Existing Home Sales is expected to decline from previous month as current market situation is adding more pressure to the housing sector. Here's forecast:

    Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.70M Previous 5.37M
    ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.10M SELL 4.30M

    The Trade Plan

    Because the Housing sector is one of the most important news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…

    If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.10M figure is released, we should look to BUY USD/JPY (or GBP/JPY) after the release. If our sell tradable deviation is hit, or 4.10M figure is release, we should look to SELL USD/JPY (or GBP/JPY) as risk sentiment should turn towards aversion.

    We'll be looking to trade this release using the after-news retracement trading method. We'll wait for the release, wait for market reaction, and wait for retracement before jumping in. For more information:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    The outlook for US Housing sector is bleak at best. With the expiration of the New Home Buyer's credit, we are expecting to see an almost 14% decline from last month's figure. And this same condition is likely to remain for at least until late 2011 because the supply of both existing and new homes exceeds demand, combining that with tough credit conditions, high unemployment rate, and record number of initial jobless claims, US housing sector is not expected to recover anytime soon.

    Additional Thoughts
    This release is scheduled at 10:00am US Time, it is the last high impact news for the NY session, we could see some exaggerated market movements as traders may just wait for this release to be out of the way before committing to a position.

    Pre-news Considerations
    Since the general sentiment for this housing sector is pretty much unchanged, and being that this is not a trend changing event, I'd stay away from pre-news.

    Definition:
    “Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”

    Historical Data & Chart For US Existing Home Sales


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 24, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. duck

    duck Private, 1st Class

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    Am I'm mistaken, or do you mean 4.30M figure?
     
  3. 15IHc

    15IHc Recruit

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    fxEd

    With all due respect, and I think Henry is due much respect, I think duck is correct.
     
  4. Mohd Amirul Nazri

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    if the actual = forecast, will we sell usd/jpy (or GBP/JPY) ??
     
  5. chaosscrem

    chaosscrem Corporal

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    No...
    If actual will be bigger or equal to 5.10 M - Buy
    If actual will be smaller or equal to 4.30 M - Sell
     
  6. digital_soul

    digital_soul Private, 1st Class

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    if the actual = forecast
    then
    do nothing
     
  7. musandpix

    musandpix Recruit

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    Forex Pros

    FYI:

    While I reviewed my usual sources of trading information this morning, I began with Henry's analysis, and then went to Forexpros.com. I searched the site for "US existing home sales", and several articles came back. I began to read the one at the top of the list, and it sure sounded alot like Henry's analysis - in fact in sounded EXACTLY like Henry's analysis, because it was Henry's analysis!

    I am so grateful for Mr. Liu sharing his analysis and trading techniques - as many of my fellow recruits have reported, we have profited handsomely from that analysis, and have expressed our gratitude time and again...I just though it worth mentioning to fellow traders that Henry also writes for at least one other FOREX publication, and that his analysis and trading methods are available there at no charge as well. This got me to wondering WHY a pro such as Henry (and others) would share their 'secrets' scott free??

    I believe that the long-term goal of providing this trading information is to build a 'following', who in time will be willing to pay for this advice through subscription to a signal-calling service...so while I am grateful for the information from Mr. Liu, my business sense tells me that this is basically an advertisement for services to be offered down the road. A "free sample" if you will.

    "Never knock a gift horse in the mouth" is a saying Mom taught me, so in spite of this revelation, I am grateful to Mr. Liu and the Forex Peace Army for making these signals available. I've paid some hefty subscription fees in the past for FOREX signals, and some of them weren't even as accurate as Mr. Liu's 'freebies' are! It would be the honorable thing to do, however, to be perfectly candid about how and why the various opinions/services/analysis and techniques are being made available to us, from the get-go. If I'm wrong about Mr. Liu building a following via these free signals, my sincere apologies are offered...

    But perhaps the old adage most applicable here is this: "Nothing in life is free", so do what you will with this information - I thought it worth making available to my fellow traders. Good luck and good trading to all.

    DA
     
  8. Ahmed H

    Ahmed H Private

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    very unpredictable day.. I think the reason could be that most pairs were either overbought or oversold..
     
  9. Huwee

    Huwee Corporal

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    Yup - agree - v. unpredictable day!

    -20 pips :- (
     
  10. maximmm

    maximmm Recruit

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    I guess in order to be always profitable, you should look at the pre-news sales and trade only if the news is the opposite of what pre-news sentiment seems to indicate.
     

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