Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.1% BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% of release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.1% or worse to BUY EURUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
The medium forecast surveyed by Bloomberg stated that the Core figure is at 0.6% of gain while the headline figure is expected to be around 0.5%, as the median survey results of 62 analysis obtained by Bloomberg.
With post-Christmas specials enticing shoppers to spend, we could be looking at an upward surprise as retailers such as Macy's Inc, Gap Inc, and others all reported better than expected sales figures...
Additional Thoughts
Since both releases (CPI and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation...
Pre-news Consideration
There should be no pre-news trading.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
Historical Data and Chart For US Core Retail Sales
Thanks,
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.1% BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.2% of release or better to BUY USDJPY, or a 0.1% or worse to BUY EURUSD… If we get a in-between release, we’ll need to look at the pre-release market condition in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure.
For more information on my trading method:
Henry's News Trading Methods.
The Market
The medium forecast surveyed by Bloomberg stated that the Core figure is at 0.6% of gain while the headline figure is expected to be around 0.5%, as the median survey results of 62 analysis obtained by Bloomberg.
With post-Christmas specials enticing shoppers to spend, we could be looking at an upward surprise as retailers such as Macy's Inc, Gap Inc, and others all reported better than expected sales figures...
Additional Thoughts
Since both releases (CPI and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation...
Pre-news Consideration
There should be no pre-news trading.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
Historical Data and Chart For US Core Retail Sales
Thanks,
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