Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today's trade is 0.3% to SELL and 0.3% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.8% of release figure or better.
Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 1.0% or better release, it justifies spiking trading to buy GBPUSD immediately. If we get 0.0%or worse, then it is also justified to SELL GBPUSD on a spike trade. Here's the link that explains my trading methods:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method
The Market
Medium Forecast sits at 0.5% out of 30+ analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. General market expectation for today's release is that double-dip recession may be returning to the UK.
With Inflationary pressure running wild and BOE officials split over their monetary policy direction, traders may take a worse than expected release as a sign to dump Sterling and move on to other more optimistic currencies, or for the very least, clearer direction.
Additional Thoughts
Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.
Pre-news Consideration
I'd recommend to stay out of pre-news trading for this release.
Definition
UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.5% surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
For historical data and charts on UK Prelim GDP q/q:
Historical Data & Charts UK GDP q/q
Thanks,
UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today's trade is 0.3% to SELL and 0.3% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.8% of release figure or better.
Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 1.0% or better release, it justifies spiking trading to buy GBPUSD immediately. If we get 0.0%or worse, then it is also justified to SELL GBPUSD on a spike trade. Here's the link that explains my trading methods:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method
The Market
Medium Forecast sits at 0.5% out of 30+ analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. General market expectation for today's release is that double-dip recession may be returning to the UK.
With Inflationary pressure running wild and BOE officials split over their monetary policy direction, traders may take a worse than expected release as a sign to dump Sterling and move on to other more optimistic currencies, or for the very least, clearer direction.
Additional Thoughts
Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.
Pre-news Consideration
I'd recommend to stay out of pre-news trading for this release.
Definition
UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.5% surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
For historical data and charts on UK Prelim GDP q/q:
Historical Data & Charts UK GDP q/q
Thanks,
Last edited by a moderator:
