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Forex Signal (Tue, July 13 2010, 6:45pm NY Time EST) - NZ Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We'll be getting the Retail Sales figure out of New Zealand today, since Retail Sales is a direct reflection of the economy, this release is considered as an high impact release... Here's the forecast:

    6:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.3%
    ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.0%


    The Basic Plan
    Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 1.2% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a 0.0% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD. Our focus will be on the Headline release, not on the Core Release... However both releases shouldn't conflict, or it will be an automatic no trade.

    We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry. For more information on my trading, please read my trading methods.

    The Market
    RBNZ has started its rate tightening cycle and NZD is on a somewhat bullish trend. It is expected to see NZD react to risk sentiment on a daily basis, but my money is on a gradual and steady upmove for the NZD until RBNZ decides to pause rate hikes.

    It is also important to point out that fundamental outlook and economic indicators, such as the Retail Sales figure, does not have much effect on NZD as this currency follows risk sentiment and correlates strongly with global equity market (and commodities, of course).

    More Thoughts
    As this is a very slow moving currency, patience is definitely a required for a successful trade. With last week's exaggerated gains on NZD, we could see some pullback on a worse than expected release, therefore I'd be looking to sell from the top... However, if the opposite is true, expect some limited up move as I think NZD appreciation should be limited.

    Due to the release time of this news, there will be less liquidity than normal. I suggest that unless we get our tradable deviation, staying out of this release is a must.

    DEFINITION
    “Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

    For previous releases data of NZD Retail Sales and historical charts, click below:
    NZ Retail Sales & Historical Charts

    To see the actual charts, make sure you click on the "File Box" next to the news item on the right hand side. Historical chart should pop up in a new window.

    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 12, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Horacio Ofman

    Horacio Ofman Recruit

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    Radio Information

    Hi Henry.
    I am quite new to forex trading, and totally new to fundamental trading, so I will be following your signal picks with extreme interest.

    Let me ask you what it seem to be a very important question. I have seen some of your videos, and you seem to be listening to a radio station (or internet webcast), with audio about the released indicator.

    Can you please let us know what radio/webcast are you listening, and if that is good for the indicators in the calendar?

    Thanks,
    Horacio
     
  3. GPipster

    GPipster Recruit

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    Could be Tradethenews.com

    Many news traders subscribe to it.
     
  4. Horacio Ofman

    Horacio Ofman Recruit

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    Thanks!!
    I am tryng to join, but it is asking me some linkedin cconnections. I have never bothered with linkedin. I will try to get this complete to get to the trial.

    does anybody knows another radio service?

    Regards,
    Horacio
     
  5. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    There is another one called Ransquawk, but they only do London/NY sessions. But i think they are a bit cheaper. Quality and speed are comparable to that of TTN.

    Henry
     
  6. splithand

    splithand Recruit

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    News Releases

    well it has come to my attn. i have had good results with this type of trade yet i have been compelled to trade directly off the charts it is great to have You as an ace in the hole so to speak any help is help that is of great benefit for all keep it up[ good work and thank you for your time} :
    >---------------------------------Richard-------------->:D
     
  7. Horacio Ofman

    Horacio Ofman Recruit

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    Thanks

    Thanks Henry and Gpipster
     
  8. jklauss

    jklauss Private

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    hai henry,thanks for your info..this is a new dimension for me in trading..will you update the figures released: in this forum asap.how long will it take?hope you can help coz i am new to online trading and not well versed in the TTN AND RANSQUAWK.
    RGDS
    KUMAR
     
  9. 1954

    1954 Corporal

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    Hi henry,
    Thanks for a great job.
    Its reported at Bloomberg by Mr. David Blachflower that UK tends to fiddle and massage economic data. To what extend shall the deviation be affected by such manipulation ?
     
  10. precap2

    precap2 Private

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    I've never been a profiting news trader but I'll keep on trying. It doesn't work for me most of the time, the first time I tried it seriously the market shot 31 pips up and pulled back almost without a moment pause, then moved 28 pips below prior-to-news price and finally returned to the starting point. I made a lil loss and became cautious of that crazy move. But I'll give it some more try. Maybe I should follow you Mr. Liu.

    Kenn
     

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