Forex Signal (Tue March 1 2011, 7:30pm NY Time EST) - AU GDP q/q...

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
473
Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:

7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL 0.3%

The Trade Plan

We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 0.9% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.3% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.

We'll be trading this release using the after-news retracement method. For more information, please read:
Henry's news trading method.

The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.6%. Ever since the sharp decline in last quarter's GDP release, traders have been speculating that the growth in Australia economy will be moderate, combining that with recent flooding and cyclones, this GDP release may not surprise to the upside.

However, considering that Tuesday's Retail Sales came out at 0.4%, or 0.1% better than expectation, Australian economy is still showing remarkable resilience.

Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed support for AUDUSD pair and possibly see market push the 1.0250 level... However, on a weak release, AUD could drop to parity (1.0000).

Pre-news Considerations
I'd be looking to staying out of the market.

DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”

Historical Data & Chart From AU GDP q/q

Thanks,


 
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Peter Hewer

Recruit
Messages
3
How Do You Get the Release Info Fast

Greetings Henry Liu,


Where on the net should I go to get the release info fast. I tried or wanted to try your type of method with the Non-Farm Payroll release and could not find it until about 45 minutes after it was released.

Is there one news feed that will provide all these international indicators quickly?


Sincerely,

Peter Hewer
 

Boko Maru

Sergeant
Messages
250
Greetings Henry Liu,


Where on the net should I go to get the release info fast. I tried or wanted to try your type of method with the Non-Farm Payroll release and could not find it until about 45 minutes after it was released.

Is there one news feed that will provide all these international indicators quickly?


Sincerely,

Peter Hewer
RANsquawk - Real-time Analysis & News Ltd

The free version audio is delayed 2 minutes, but text is usually fairly timely (like within a few seconds of release). But you won't get anything really fast without paying.

Hope that helps...
 

Peter Hewer

Recruit
Messages
3
I use application FX-NTS from FX-NTS

For collecting in bookmark " pliki "
Thanks for replying. I went there but it seems to be in some Eastern European language. Is there an English equivalent to this site? (I will book mark it at least for now as a backup site).
 
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