Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
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Canada’s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here’s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.4%
The Trade Plan
Let’s look to BUY USD/CAD if we get a 0.0% or lower release. Look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.
For more information on my trading methods, please read:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
Canada’s GDP is expecting to bounce back from last month’s negative rating. The BOC holds a positive outlook for the GDP due to last weeks encouraging reports. The Royal bank of Canada reported a 13% in profit increases for the first time in almost 4 years. As a result, a strong GDP should drive the Canadian dollar to a higher level. Don’t expect any change in interest hike expectations as markets are forecasting weak activity well into the second quarter.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair doesn’t give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.
Pre-news Possibilities:
No Pre-news for this release…
Definition
GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
Historical Chart and Data for CAD GDP m/m
Thanks,
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.4%
The Trade Plan
Let’s look to BUY USD/CAD if we get a 0.0% or lower release. Look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.
For more information on my trading methods, please read:
Henry Liu's Trading Method
The Market
Canada’s GDP is expecting to bounce back from last month’s negative rating. The BOC holds a positive outlook for the GDP due to last weeks encouraging reports. The Royal bank of Canada reported a 13% in profit increases for the first time in almost 4 years. As a result, a strong GDP should drive the Canadian dollar to a higher level. Don’t expect any change in interest hike expectations as markets are forecasting weak activity well into the second quarter.
Additional Thoughts
USD/CAD is my official pair for this trade, and this pair doesn’t give up retracement easily. In the event that we get a strong release, expect USD/CAD to spike, stall, and then spike again. We may see some limited retracement, if any. The strategy to trade this release is usually just get in as soon as possible and let it ride.
Pre-news Possibilities:
No Pre-news for this release…
Definition
GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
Historical Chart and Data for CAD GDP m/m
Thanks,
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