Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 0.8% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.2% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.
We'll be trading this release using the after-news retracement method. For more information, please read:
Henry's news trading method.
The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.5%, a 0.7% decrease from the previous 1.2% release. As Australia GDP has maintained on the positive side for the last 6 quarters, with 3 better than expected releases by at least 0.3%, 1 inline with expectation, and 2 worse than expected releases by 0.1 and 0.2%... Overall market is expecting better release from Australia...
Looking at the current market, specially with the recent economic data, market may find some support for AUD if the releases are better than expected... However, this will not change the long-term trend for AUDUSD, which is bearish.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed risk appetite that would be the key focus of the session. Market will probably push AUD/USD back above the 0.9650 or 0.9700, where is the immediate resistance area.
Therefore, on a strong release, it may be best to jump in as soon as possible because we may not see much of retracement.
Pre-news Considerations
I'd be looking to staying out of the market as the consensus is in conflict with the overall sentiment.
DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”
Historical Data & Chart From AU GDP q/q
Thanks,
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 0.8% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.2% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.
We'll be trading this release using the after-news retracement method. For more information, please read:
Henry's news trading method.
The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.5%, a 0.7% decrease from the previous 1.2% release. As Australia GDP has maintained on the positive side for the last 6 quarters, with 3 better than expected releases by at least 0.3%, 1 inline with expectation, and 2 worse than expected releases by 0.1 and 0.2%... Overall market is expecting better release from Australia...
Looking at the current market, specially with the recent economic data, market may find some support for AUD if the releases are better than expected... However, this will not change the long-term trend for AUDUSD, which is bearish.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed risk appetite that would be the key focus of the session. Market will probably push AUD/USD back above the 0.9650 or 0.9700, where is the immediate resistance area.
Therefore, on a strong release, it may be best to jump in as soon as possible because we may not see much of retracement.
Pre-news Considerations
I'd be looking to staying out of the market as the consensus is in conflict with the overall sentiment.
DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”
Historical Data & Chart From AU GDP q/q
Thanks,
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