Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.6% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today's trade is 0.2% to SELL and 0.2% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.6% of release figure or better. This will be the 4th consecutive quarter of positive GDP release from UK.
Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 0.8% or better release, it justifies spiking trading to buy GBPUSD immediately. If we get 0.0%or worse, then it is also justified to SELL GBPUSD on a spike trade. Here's the link that explains my trading methods:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method
The Market
Medium Forecast sits at 0.4% out of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Market is expecting this release to be significantly lower than previous quarter, but nevertheless a minimum of 0.4% of growth is expected.
With BOE Posen openly calling for adding stimulus, this GDP release is going to carry a lot of weight as traders speculate BOE's next move. With recent Manufacturing PMI showing moderation and Services PMI showing expansion, there is a possibility for a surprise, which should make this event very tradable.
Additional Thoughts
Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.
Pre-news Consideration
Due to recent market condition (driven by risk sentiments), I'd stay out of pre-news trading until market returns to normal.
Definition
UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q2 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.6% surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
For historical data and charts on UK Prelim GDP q/q:
Historical Data & Charts UK GDP q/q
Thanks,
UK Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.6% SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today's trade is 0.2% to SELL and 0.2% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.6% of release figure or better. This will be the 4th consecutive quarter of positive GDP release from UK.
Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 0.8% or better release, it justifies spiking trading to buy GBPUSD immediately. If we get 0.0%or worse, then it is also justified to SELL GBPUSD on a spike trade. Here's the link that explains my trading methods:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method
The Market
Medium Forecast sits at 0.4% out of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Market is expecting this release to be significantly lower than previous quarter, but nevertheless a minimum of 0.4% of growth is expected.
With BOE Posen openly calling for adding stimulus, this GDP release is going to carry a lot of weight as traders speculate BOE's next move. With recent Manufacturing PMI showing moderation and Services PMI showing expansion, there is a possibility for a surprise, which should make this event very tradable.
Additional Thoughts
Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.
Pre-news Consideration
Due to recent market condition (driven by risk sentiments), I'd stay out of pre-news trading until market returns to normal.
Definition
UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q2 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.6% surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
For historical data and charts on UK Prelim GDP q/q:
Historical Data & Charts UK GDP q/q
Thanks,
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