1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Tuesday August 2, 2011, 9:30pm NY Time EDT) - AU Retail Sales

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Jul 31, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    A big day for the Australian economy and we will be getting the Retail Sales figures from Australia today once again. If you’ve been following the news out of Australia, you would know that retail sales has been a major talking point for the Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here’s the forecast:

    9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.6%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.7% SELL -0.2%


    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking at for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a buy is 0.7%. If we get a 0.8% we will look to do strong BUY and if we get -0.2% or worse we will look to SELL.

    There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips within the first 2 hours after the figure release, if we get our deviation. This will be due to the fact that the AU interest rates have already been released and this could add to a great momentum.

    We will be looking for an after-news trade and we will wait for a significant retracement after we initially wait for the market to move with momentum first.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method


    The Market
    Australian Retail Sales are expected to remain strong due to the low level of the unemployment rate and the general fundamental outlook of its economy. Inflationary pressure remains on par.

    AUD strength has taken a significant toll on the Australian economy applying significant pressure on the tourism and travel industry. It has also placed pressure on the Retail sector as many consumers are going online and purchasing consumer goods with a stronger AUD.

    This is a great time in the Australian economy which has been proven through overseas designer chains opening stores in Australia. We have already seen evidence of this with retail clothing chain Zara opening their stores in Australia’s competitive retail economy.

    There is also a strong local comparativeness and competitiveness in the retail sector that is driving prices lower, in order for businesses to compete with one another. This has attracted many consumers.

    Additional Thoughts
    AUDUSD currency pair is very strong at the moment. If the release hits our BUY deviation, we may sea the AUD break new highs, if we see a SELL deviation we could see very little retracement.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.

    DEFINITION
    "Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises."

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m

    All The best


    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Jul 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. alvin050

    alvin050 Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2008
    Messages:
    62
    Likes Received:
    0
    numbers not tally

    Your numbers in forecast (bold blue color) do not tally with your Trade Plan. Do you mean BUY deviation is 0.3 and SELL deviation is 0.6?
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    Yes that’s correct I’m just, summarising the number we need, Going forward I will have a simplified and better template.;)
     
  4. fazli

    fazli Recruit

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    0
    the pre news

    hi stavro,.....why this time there is no "pre news trading"?

    is the 'pre news trading' (pnt) specifically for certain pair or news and one more thing, how accurate (%) the pnt based on your experience.

    i hope you dont mind if my question sound like so amature ;)
     
  5. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    Because there is huge rate decision coming prior that could still be in the picture and uncertainty. I would best keep out of any pre news trading.
     
  6. Aldo Colombo

    Aldo Colombo Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2011
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    3
    Recent changes

    Now that AUD has retraced after RBA Interest Rate remains at 5%, does it change your additional thoughts?
    Thank you
     
  7. Aldo Colombo

    Aldo Colombo Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2011
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    3
    RBA rate

    4,75% sorry
     
  8. chris berry

    chris berry Recruit

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2011
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    What would be the target and stop-loss for this trade?

     
    #8 chris berry, Aug 2, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  9. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    I use a Target od 25 Pips and a Menatl SL of 15 pips if spike goes against me.
     

Share This Page