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Forex Signal (Tuesday March 13, 2012 – 2:15PM (NY Time) EDT - US Interest rate

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Mar 13, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello

    Please see my trade plan:

    US Interest Rate
    Forecast 0.25%
    Previous 0.25%
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD
    The triggers we need: BUY EUR/USD: Looking for Emergency rate cut
    SELL: Any increase (very unlikely)

    Important Note: if we ever see a rate Hike for US Immediately place sell positions on Gold it will be the next boom to bust

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency at the moment.
    Occurrence: This is released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends

    About our Triggers:
    It is very unlikely the Fed will hike rates to 0.25% or decrease rates; however this is news trading and I will be there just in case we get a surprise or some sort of deviation. We will SELL EUR/USD if we see any form of increase and we will go LONG if we see an Emergency Rate cut which is more likely than an increase, due to current market conditions. There is 90% chance that this will be a NO TRADE.

    If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation that the market will move 60-70 pips within 2 spikes in the first 15 minutes.

    Why do we care? And what is it?
    The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement which is focused on the future. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

    Method to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Please see my views on the EURO

    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade.
    I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level, or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 minute time frame, after news release.

    Historical Chart and Data for US Federal Funds Rate


    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Mar 13, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2012
  2. allan vincent

    allan vincent Private, 1st Class

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    i do not understand. completely contradictory.
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Amended good spot :)
     
  4. Jamir0n

    Jamir0n Private

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    i second your sentiment and confusion Allan!!!

    although some of it is clear. however, one got to decipher stavro's "wording" to be able to profit from his brilliant analysis.

    i made lots of pips following what i can understand from his signal today. it was great. BUT, when the time came to watch for his WARNINGS and NOTES and the underlying understanding behind it, i lost most of pips i gained due to the very problem you're describing ALLAN :-((

    would've been great if it was clearer.

    nevertheless, my hat goes off to Stavro and his effort- if only he can make his signals clearer and more comprehendable to newbies in particular.

    another suggestion is for other members, with more experience "tutoring" and coaching , to clarify this great work/analysis for us.

    again, thanks Stavro for a great signal today and your good effort everyday.

    regards,
     
  5. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    That's funny. So tell us JamirOn how you did so well following Stavro's advice when it was a No Trade? Please fill us in on the details.
     

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