Forex Signal (Wed, April 14, 08:30 am EST) US Core Retail Sales m/m

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hi there :)

This is Crazy Cat with a potentially profitable trading opportunity...

Wednesday, April 14th (8:30 am New York Time) USA

We have US Core Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.4. Last month it read 0.8.

I recommend trading USD/JPY for this report.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the USD/JPY by going to this link: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/economic-indicator-descriptions/7509-us-retail-sales.html

The trigger for this indicator is 0.7. This means that if US Core Retail Sales m/m comes out at 1.1 or more, USD/JPY will probably go up by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.3 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

We will also have US regular Retail Sales coming out, and if they conflict, I recommend staying out.

The real challenge here is US CPI release at the same time. A 0.2 deviation on CPI m/m or Core CPI m/m can also move USD/JPY by about 20 pips. In fact, it happened on Feb 19, 2010 where we had lower numbers than expected and a move of 20 pips:
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

Therefore, if you see a conflict between US Retail Sales and US CPI, then get out if you are in a trade already or stay out if you did not enter yet. I believe US Retail Sales report is more important now so my primary focus would be on that report.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report click here: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/felix-after-spike-retracement-strategies/7511-us-core-retail-sales-m-m-after-spike-retracement-strategy.html

For example: on March 12th, US Core Retail Sales came out at 0.8, versus an expectation of 0.1. USD/JPY went up by 45 pips. See for yourself what happened by seeing this chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link: Forex News Trading | Details and History for USD Core Retail Sales m/m

I hope you make some money on this report.
-Crazy Cat
 
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koco

Private, 1st Class
Messages
41
I hate this f******g news!!!

I lost thanks to damn whipsaw. This one is conflicting and should be avoided.
 

Ian Wheldale

Recruit
Messages
4
OK, so I'm a complete newbie to all this and as such only have a practice account, so no damage done.:)

The 1min candle at 08.30 EST was huge in comparison with what went before and ended up 11 pips up. Next 2 went up to end 17 pips above the 08.30 open. Then we get a 37 point downswing!!

I'm keen to learn why should this happen? The signal reasoning made sense, the report was positive, but $$ sold like crazy. Any of you guys who know what you're doing (unlike me) care to throw some education my way.
 

Isbjorn

Recruit
Messages
1
News trading software

Hi, I don't know if this is the right forum to ask this question or not. I appreciate this service and made 30 pips on the Nzd strategy yesterday.
And didn't take a trade today on the US CPI etc. which was a good move. My question is: does anybody have any opinion on News Trading Software? i:e news feed with QUICK analysis that can be traded in real life right off the bat? Appreciate any thoughts or insights on this.
 

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
What? Now I am confused.
I said "The trigger for this indicator is 0.7. This means that if US Core Retail Sales m/m comes out at 1.1 or more, USD/JPY will probably go up by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.3 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report."

It actually came out at 0.6 vs 0.5 expected so only +0.1 deviation. I wanted to see at least 0.7 deviation so... it was a no trade.

I don't get why people have a problem with this signal.
 

koco

Private, 1st Class
Messages
41
how come you lost if it was almost as expected and therefore a no trade?
Because I don't use SNW for trading the news. Instead I straddle them. Therefore, sometimes I open trades which are loosy (like this one). In case of news coming out close to expectation I use to cancel my orders, but sometimes it's impossible to react such quickly. US Retail Sales was exactly this case. I bought "just the news" product (instant - no delay, the fastest one), but the market moved concurrently with the news release.

However, I open many trades, which are worth trading, but due the SNW's conservative triggers those trades don't get opened. Moreover SNW didn't work well for me. In 99% cases I couldn't get filled.

My method is risky in some cases, but still more profitables than with SNW. However, I'm satisfied with the speed of news feed (that's why I decided to buy "just the news" product). Problem is mostly with the broker's liquidity to fill after the SNW fires together with the small delay between the news release and the SNW's click. Latency is very important and despite the delay is very small, SNW often clicks a price that is already invalid.
 

Ian Wheldale

Recruit
Messages
4
I said "The trigger for this indicator is 0.7. This means that if US Core Retail Sales m/m comes out at 1.1 or more, USD/JPY will probably go up by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.3 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 35 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report."

It actually came out at 0.6 vs 0.5 expected so only +0.1 deviation. I wanted to see at least 0.7 deviation so... it was a no trade.

I don't get why people have a problem with this signal.
From Bloomberg

Released on 4/14/2010 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change 0.3 % 1.2 % 0.5 % to 2.1 % 1.6 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.2 % to 0.9 % 0.6 %

So was the figure I should have been looking at the 'less autos' one? Like I said I am a newbie at this and have joined here to educate myself and get help. Your final comment isn't exactly helpful given I have gone out of my way to emphasize I am not criticizing. I could doubtless cream you at poker, but wouldn't see any value in such a put down.
 

Lucas Gremista

Private, 1st Class
Messages
41
Because I don't use SNW for trading the news. Instead I straddle them.
what broker do you use? i find this a great trading method, but my broker doesn't allow hedging, including limit orders.

btw, if you got triggered for this indicator, maybe you're using a limit order way too close to the market price, it's happened with me too, I guess 15 pips it's still way too close.
 
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