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Forex Signal (Wed April 20 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) - GBP MPC Meeting Minutes

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Apr 19, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 5, 2010
    Likes Received:
    MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it’s customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no changes in either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, UK’s quantitative easing program), today will be the first time for a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the forecast:

    4:30am NY Time UK MPC Minutes Forecast 3-0-6 Previous 3-0-6
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY (4 Vote For Hike) / SELL (2 Vote For QE)

    The Trade Plan

    We will be looking at the vote count today. If we get 4 votes for hiking 25 basis points, we should see some strengthening in the Sterling and a BUY GBP/USD trade should be justified. If we get 2 votes for quantitative easing, or to increase the current APF from 200 Billion Pound, GBP should weaken and a SELL GBP/USD trade should be justified.

    Due to the nature of this release, you need to have a newswire or audio service in order to trade it. We should see a steady market reaction after the release and possible carry over to the NY Session. I’ll be looking for an after news retracement trade.

    For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method

    The Market
    Once again, MPC or Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes on the Rate Decision meeting along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the Asset Purchasing Facility program. If you recall, MPC once again left both intereste rate and APF unchanged two weeks ago, and when there were no changes to monetary policy, BOE usually does not issue any statements until 2 weeks later during the MPC Minutes.

    With the yearly CPI figure at 4.4% level, market speculation for further quantitative easing has pretty much diminished, as many traders are now speculating that aside from Sentence,Weale, and now Dale there may be one more members inclined for a sooner than later rate hike… At the very least, if we do get a strong concern out of this minutes over inflation, market will definitely be looking to BUY Sterling as a result.

    Additional Thoughts
    It is my opinion that GBP is well supported and UK CPI will remain under strong pressure… That means I will be looking for LONG trades on Sterling crosses only.

    Pre-news Consideration
    We could see pre-buying of GBP, therefore I’d be looking to go long on GBPUSD if market drops to around the 1.6300 level.

    Historical Data & Chart For GBP MPC Meeting Minutes


    #1 Henry Liu, Apr 19, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. forexluck

    forexluck Recruit

    Jun 9, 2010
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    G/u has already dropped very low and now it reached near 6300 , then why are you talking that u will buy if market drops to 6300 ? Do you mean that it will go above 6300 then if it will come down back to 6300 before news, then you will buy ????
  3. phale

    phale Recruit

    Mar 31, 2010
    Likes Received:

    GBP jump up right from 1.6300, what a pity that I missed to buy it.

    Gbp rise due to 1 member vote for 1.0% rate hike, and 2 mem voted for 0.75 though remain 3-0-6.

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