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Forex Signal (Wed April 6 2011, 9:30pm NY Time EST) - AU Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Apr 6, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:

    9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 23K Previous -10.1K
    AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.0% Previous 5.0%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL -5K


    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to stay unchanged at 5.0%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

    We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.

    For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods

    The Market
    Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.

    According to Bloomberg, +23K jobs was added with an unemployment rate of 5.0%, which remains unchanged since last month. With recent RBA statement mentioning employment leveling off, we may see inline or slightly below market expectation release.

    Additional Thoughts
    With the surprise rate hike in China, lowered demand for coal from Japan, heavy recovery cost from recent cyclones and flood, AUD's general fundamental outlook is definitely not good.

    Pre-news Considerations
    There are no pre-news consideration for this trade.

    DEFINITION
    "Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

    Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change


    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Apr 6, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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