Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
NZ Core Retail Sales q/q
Forecast 0.7%
Previous 0.7%
Pair to trade: NZD/USD
Numbers we need: BUY NZD/USD 1.2%
SELL NZD/USD 0.2%
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence: Quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends
Spike Probability: Ok but, be mindful that trade has tendency to reverse after spike
About our Triggers:
NZ Retail Sales q/q is forecasted to arrive at 0.7%.
We are looking for a deviation of 0.5% on this trade.
If we get 2.0% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on NZD/USD and if we get 0.5% or lower I will go SHORT on NZD/CAD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 25pips on the initial spike.
NOTE: NZ Retail sales is also out the same time, however I do not see a risk in conflict.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Core Retail Sales is a quarterly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in New-Zealand, excluding auto. Automobile and gas station sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends. This news is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the New-Zealand's economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade if trade falls below the 50% spike I will look to go the opposite direction as this trade is likely to reverse. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
NOTE: I will not take this retracement on this trade unless our triggers are hit.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyse this.
I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use a 10pip limit order.
Historical Chart and Data for NZ Core Retail Sales
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Forecast 0.7%
Previous 0.7%
Pair to trade: NZD/USD
Numbers we need: BUY NZD/USD 1.2%
SELL NZD/USD 0.2%
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for currency
Occurrence: Quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends
Spike Probability: Ok but, be mindful that trade has tendency to reverse after spike
About our Triggers:
NZ Retail Sales q/q is forecasted to arrive at 0.7%.
We are looking for a deviation of 0.5% on this trade.
If we get 2.0% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on NZD/USD and if we get 0.5% or lower I will go SHORT on NZD/CAD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 25pips on the initial spike.
NOTE: NZ Retail sales is also out the same time, however I do not see a risk in conflict.
What is it? And why does the market care?
The Core Retail Sales is a quarterly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in New-Zealand, excluding auto. Automobile and gas station sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends. This news is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the New-Zealand's economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade if trade falls below the 50% spike I will look to go the opposite direction as this trade is likely to reverse. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
NOTE: I will not take this retracement on this trade unless our triggers are hit.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyse this.
I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use a 10pip limit order.
Historical Chart and Data for NZ Core Retail Sales
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
Last edited by a moderator: