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Forex Signal (Wed August 31, 2011 – 9:30PM EDT) – AU Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 30, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
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    Hello All,

    Lets talk about Australian Retail Sales. Here is my trade plan that i want to share with you.

    AU retail Sales m/m
    Forecast 0.3%
    Previous -0.1%
    Pair to trade: AUD/USD


    Numbers we need:
    BUY AUD/USD 0.8%
    SELL AUD/USD -0.2%



    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence: 30 days after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    AU retail Sales m/m is forecasted to arrive at 0.3%
    We are looking for a deviation of 0.5% either way on this trade.
    If we get 0.8% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/USD and if we get
    -0.2% or worse I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. This trade will have a good chance of a 50% retrace on the initial spike

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in Australia. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the Australian economy.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Please be diligent trading this report as Australian private capital expenditure is due out the same time; however I do not expect the numbers to conflict or still the light from the Retail sales sentiment.

    Pre News trading
    Approximately 5 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term SHORT position in AUD/USD.
    I would be out of this trade 1 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

    After Spike
    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    Spike
    I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please note that Australian data is known for Latency should the spike begin and your Auto clicker has not provided a number please cancel your spike trade to avoid yourself getting caught with slippage; you will have a better chance using retracement and pre news methods.

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 30, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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