Forex Signal (Wed December 5 2011, 8:15am NY Time EST) - US ADP NFP Changes

Henry Liu

Former FPA Special Consultant
ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 100K Previous 93K

The Trade Plan

As stated in previous analyses on ADP NFP news, I usually don’t trade it but I use this release for future trend references, but if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.

With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 150K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 50K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.

In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method.

The Market
With NFP private jobs forecasted at +155K it is likely that we will get the 100K release today; as a matter of fact, considering the seasonal hirings at the end of the year, I expect to see either inline or slightly better release today.

Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.

The private jobs number is usually the true reflection of the economy. However, with the general liquidity still thin, we should stay out of the market unless we get our tradable deviation.

Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release.

Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP


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Great Number

Great number. I made good pipage on the spike...but no pullback to do the retracement. Maybe you could of got in around 82.60 as it paused on the way up. Spike was the way to go on this huge deviation.


Right on

Thanks for the pips

I actually deviated from your signal only slightly since I trade the EUR/USD mostly

But since the deviations was so large and your signal was to Buy EUR/USD on a 50K report for the news.

I took the opposite angle of Selling the EUR/USD if there was a 150K or above
Since I deducted that you were saying to Buy the EUR/USD which indicates a USD weakness

Then I deducted to SELL EUR/USD on US strength based on your signal of 150k or better for a trigger

I don't know if this is the right thing to do, but this along with my technicals which already created a great setup on the EUR/USD

Anyhow thanks for the pips I made my first pips on news with your signal today for +22 pips
I never traded the news before thanks for the work

Also I took my standard Fib profit at 1.618 on 5min chart so +22 pips on news with fib target for me but with these numbers I have no doubt you will see 2.618 and beyond
Thanks again
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Damn.. It didn't retrace.. I saw the big number and quickly enter before the retrace (close it on 20 pips) do You Mr Liu think there will be a retracement that we can ride after?? it's 8:29am Ny time..