Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
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ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 100K Previous 93K
ACTION: 150K BUY USDJPY / 50K BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
As stated in previous analyses on ADP NFP news, I usually don’t trade it but I use this release for future trend references, but if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 150K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 50K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method.
The Market
With NFP private jobs forecasted at +155K it is likely that we will get the 100K release today; as a matter of fact, considering the seasonal hirings at the end of the year, I expect to see either inline or slightly better release today.
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.
The private jobs number is usually the true reflection of the economy. However, with the general liquidity still thin, we should stay out of the market unless we get our tradable deviation.
Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release.
Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP
Thanks,
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 100K Previous 93K
ACTION: 150K BUY USDJPY / 50K BUY EURUSD
The Trade Plan
As stated in previous analyses on ADP NFP news, I usually don’t trade it but I use this release for future trend references, but if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 150K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 50K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.
In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
Henry's Retracement Trading Method.
The Market
With NFP private jobs forecasted at +155K it is likely that we will get the 100K release today; as a matter of fact, considering the seasonal hirings at the end of the year, I expect to see either inline or slightly better release today.
Additional Thoughts
The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.
The private jobs number is usually the true reflection of the economy. However, with the general liquidity still thin, we should stay out of the market unless we get our tradable deviation.
Pre-news Consideration
There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release.
Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP
Thanks,
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