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Forex Signal (Wed January 12 2011, 7:30pm NY Time EST) - AU Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jan 11, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here’s the forecast:

    7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 25K Previous 54.6K
    AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.1% Previous 5.2%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 55K SELL -5K


    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to have dropped from 5.2% to 5.1%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

    We'll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we'll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 50K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -10K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We'll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.

    For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Methods

    The Market
    Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market has direct influences over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.

    This release should help to add more pressure to the AUDUSD trend if we get a worse than expected number. On the fundamental front, we may have employment expectation capping towards the end of the year on uncertainties in global commodity demands; while on the seasonal hirings front, we may boost in employment figure. Therefore, this release could come out either way.

    Additional Thoughts
    With AUDUSD falling below the critical 0.9900 level, it may be important to examine the total full/part time employment figure. If most of the employment figure is attributed to part-time, then expect market to react mildly to the release.

    Pre-news Considerations
    There are no pre-news consideration for this trade, but my overall bias is to SELL AUDUSD on any significant rally.

    DEFINITION
    "Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

    Historical Chart & Data For AU Employment Change


    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jan 11, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. ahshawn

    ahshawn Recruit

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    conflicting figures...dunno where to go...
     

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