Forex Signal (Wed July 14, 2010 8:30am EST NY Time) U.S. Core Retail Sales

[slippedisc]

Henry,

Crazy Cat used to give us suggested profit targets & stops, is it possible for you to do this?


Thanks


nick

 

[made4life]

Thanks man....I appreciate your posting. Cheers!

 

[frankstar]

Thanks for the posting Henry..

I'm new to news trading and I think this was quite a mixed re-action to apparently fairly negative news (-0.5%) on USD.

The USD/JPY moved to the downside by about 13 pips or so and then surged up a good 26 pips, on a negative number for the dollar. GBp/USD moved 20-30 pips on the release but is now back to pre-release price (as at 13:55 BST). USD/CHF didn't have much of a reaction either.

Can you shed more light on the move? I would have expected USD/JPY to move down and keep going, not surge back up! Would the various currencies reactions indicate that the market sees some strength in the dollar and that we could be on the verge of a dallar rally?

Thanks,

Francis

 

[heinport]

Was this a trigger or not, just want to see if I have my stuff together ?

 

[Jeffreyfx1]

What an analysis!

I think Sir Henry Liu is about the best thing that has happened to the FPA. Just two news releases yet and I'm beginning to consider dropping the stress of technical trading which I thought was the only real tool to profiting. Indeed you are a gift of a fundamentalist. may God reward you for this great Job. Many are earning cos of you and I appreciate that myself. God bless Henry Liu!

 

[heinport]

Did you get the trade according to the trigger ? I was doing another trade and not sure if the deviation was met or not.

 

[Boko Maru]

Thanks for the posting Henry..

I'm new to news trading and I think this was quite a mixed re-action to apparently fairly negative news (-0.5%) on USD.

The USD/JPY moved to the downside by about 13 pips or so and then surged up a good 26 pips, on a negative number for the dollar. GBp/USD moved 20-30 pips on the release but is now back to pre-release price (as at 13:55 BST). USD/CHF didn't have much of a reaction either.

Can you shed more light on the move? I would have expected USD/JPY to move down and keep going, not surge back up! Would the various currencies reactions indicate that the market sees some strength in the dollar and that we could be on the verge of a dallar rally?

Thanks,

Francis

Core Retail came out exactly as expected, and Headline deviated by 0.3. It was expected at -0.2, and came out at -0.5. So, a negative number was already priced in, and since Core didn't deviate at all, the small deviation on Headline wasn't enough to move the market that much initially. So this was a no trade really.

Hope that helps.

Also, it's important to keep in mind that reactions to news don't always make sense. Two years ago news made so little sense that it was actually profitable to trade against the number (i.e. if it was a positive UK report you'd sell the pound.) We did that a lot in Felix's old Diamonds trading room. A lot of times this happens because banks use news to sweep stops both long and short. One look at an NFP chart almost any month shows you that.

If you're interested, "Beat the Forex Dealer" is a book written by a former MIG employee that describes a lot of this stuff.

 

[heinport]

Core Retail came out exactly as expected, and Headline deviated by 0.3. It was expected at -0.2, and came out at -0.5. So, a negative number was already priced in, and since Core didn't deviate at all, the small deviation on Headline wasn't enough to move the market that much initially. So this was a no trade really.

Hope that helps.

Also, it's important to keep in mind that reactions to news don't always make sense. Two years ago news made so little sense that it was actually profitable to trade against the number (i.e. if it was a positive UK report you'd sell the pound.) We did that a lot in Felix's old Diamonds trading room. A lot of times this happens because banks use news to sweep stops both long and short. One look at an NFP chart almost any month shows you that.

If you're interested, "Beat the Forex Dealer" is a book written by a former MIG employee that describes a lot of this stuff.

That answers my question, thanks

 

[alanshawn]

spike

Hi Henry
Could you tell me what kind of special program you are refering about?
Thanks
Ange


I was talking about the SPIKE TRADING trend from madruga

 

[sober e. kalu]

S ober E Kalu

Good day sir,just started demo trading today,want to ask how to analize the market.How to enter trade and opt out when necessory.thank you.