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Forex Signal (Wed June 29 2011, 7:00am NY Time EST) - CAD Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jun 28, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    CPI is also known as Inflation and our focus will be on the Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items…

    Here’s the forecast:
    7:00am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1%


    The Trade Plan
    The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, is at 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD or a 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD.

    Keep in mind to look for an after-news retracement trade for this release. I’ll wait for the release, then the initial market move, and wait for a decent retracement before jumping in. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method


    The Market
    With the entire market waiting on news out of Greece for direction, we may not see much volatility after this release... However, if we get our deviation, I would still jump in to this trade as recent BOC comments point to further headwinds in Canadian economy.

    With Crude Oil dropping sharply and USD gaining momentum after the ending of QE2, USDCAD is positioned to move upward in the coming weeks, therefore I'd only be looking for BUY trades (or SELL CAD).

    Additional Thoughts
    USDCAD may stall until the equity market opens; therefore I’d recommend using some patience when trading this pair during 7:00am hour. Also Core CPI rarely surprises much, so if we do not get our deviation, just stay out of the market until U.S. market opens.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news trading for this event.

    DEFINITION:
    “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households (Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

    Our focus is on the Core CPI or CPI ex Energy and Food components, which provides a better picture of inflation without the seasonal factor.

    Historical Chart and Data for CAD Core CPI m/m



    Thanks,



    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jun 28, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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