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Forex Signal (Wed March 2 2011, 8:15am NY Time EST) - US ADP NFP Changes

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Mar 1, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:

    8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 180K Previous 187K
    ACTION: 230K BUY USDJPY / 130K BUY EURUSD

    The Trade Plan

    I usually don’t trade this release but I use its figure for future trend references, however if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, market will probably have not problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for Friday’s NFP release; therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.

    With the above being said, we'll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 230K or better release, I’d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 130K or worse, then I’d be looking to BUY EURUSD... I will also recommend to look at my strength meter and find the best currency against the USD pending the actual data.

    In the event that we do get our deviation, we'll be trading this news based on after-news Retracement Trading Method. For more information, read:
    Henry's Retracement Trading Method.

    The Market
    With NFP jobs forecasted at +175K it is likely that we will get 180K ADP Figure as forecasted... as a matter of fact, considering the ISM Manufacturing PMI's employment component, I would expect no less.


    Additional Thoughts
    The ADP NFP Employment Release is aways considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There should not be much pre-news trading opportunities for this release.


    Historical Chart & Data For US ADP NFP

    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Mar 1, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Fred Langemark

    Fred Langemark Recruit

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    A Question for Henry, or ... ?

    Henry,

    Many thanks for the insightful analysis, and especially for taking the time out of your day(s) to help us out with this stuff!

    I'm wondering if you could advise a newbie like myself how to go about obtaining these news report numbers in a more timely fashion (short of a dedicated Bloomberg terminal that is, as I'm kind of poor at this point)? I've shown up for just about all of your signals since I signed up with FPA, and my main challenge is that I'm seeing the market move long before I'm aware of the actuals.

    This seems to be less of an issue with the retracement-style trades (WWW), but is quite problematic with respect to the spike trades.

    Thanks again!
     

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