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Forex Signal (Wed May 25 2011, 4:30am NY Time EST) - UK Revised GDP q/q

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, May 24, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus for today. Here is the forecast:

    4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.5%
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%

    The Trade Plan
    Since this is the second release of the 4th quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 0.5% and previous release of 0.5% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.

    However, we’ll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.8% or better, as I believe the only reason that would justify a short-term LONG on Sterling is definitely a flat or positive figure.

    Historically, if there is a 80% of chance that our S. Factor hits, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.

    For more information on my news trading methods:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method

    The Market
    The revised UK GDP report will most likely reflect the preliminary GDP expectation of 0.5%. The BOE stated that high energy prices and the VAT tax hike are the primary causes of the 4.5% inflation mark, and not a result of economic turmoil. Consumers are struggling at home to pay for basic needs such as food and gas due to the high cost of living. The MPC voted 3-0-6 to keep interest rates on hold as the economy shows no clear signs of future direction. Market uncertainty is leaving policy makers in a state of confusion. Therefore, rate hike expectations for the end of the year have diminished although the likelihood of it happening are still very possible.

    Additional Thoughts
    A strong release could create bullish sentiment for the Sterling for the rest of the week since this is a high impact release. If the deviations are met, look to BUY the GBP/USD around the 1.6100 mark and SELL GBP/USD at the 1.6300 mark.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.

    Definition
    Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

    Historical Chart and Data for UK Revised GDP q/q



    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, May 24, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. luis fernando

    luis fernando Recruit

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    Averiguacion

    Hi Henry thanks for your input, the country of Colombia I am very interested in your news reports, I have a concern, as you do to determine the possible deviation to give the news in the currency pair? how do I operate without the famous autoclick news?

    Thanks

    Luis Fernando
    FOREX INVESTORS

    Hola Henry gracias por tus aportes, soy del pais de Colombia me interesan mucho tus reportes de noticias, tengo una inquietud, como haces para determinar la posible desviacion que se dara en la noticia en el par de monedas?? como hago para operar noticias sin los famosos autoclick??

    Gracias

    Luis Fernando
    INVERSOR FOREX
     
  3. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Forex news trading calendar with economic events analysis and currency exchange charts

    FPA calendar gives historical deviations and pips movements (right side links). Best to research yourself and determine your own triggers anyway. Personal opinion, but many of Henry's deviations are the same he's been using for years, and are quite stale. These news reports don't remain static. A deviation that worked 2 years ago might not work at all now.

    One example is New Home Sales; I think he recommended a 70 dev on that one. Personally, I wouldn't touch a 70 deviation on that report with a 10 foot pole. I actually think it's untradable right now and I skipped it. How did I know that? I did my own research.

    For getting the news, you can try refreshing the FPA calendar and get it within a few seconds, or pay for a live or slightly delayed news feed. You won't get a live feed for free.
     
  4. luis fernando

    luis fernando Recruit

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    Thanks friend for answer, but as I get these deviations before leaving the news? key you operate? as it does?

    Thanks:):)
     
  5. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Sure no problem. But not sure I understand what you are asking above. You can get the deviations at the news or slightly delayed. I can suggest the following: go to FPA calendar page (link I gave you earlier), and keep hitting refresh at the news until you see the number. That's free.

    If you don't mind paying, you can pay $9.95 per month for a 10 second delayed feed at this website:

    Fast Economic News / Secret News Weapon SNW

    "Just the news" is the product; same company that also does an autoclicker. Again not sure if that was what you were asking, but hope it helps.
     
  6. willcox

    willcox Recruit

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    Hey, everyone!
    I'm new here and came to gain new knowledge.
    Did anybody hear anything about "Forex 4 seasons" ? There are a lot of stuff in the web but nothing specific at the same time.
    waiting for reply :)
     

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