Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
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Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus today. Here is the forecast:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.1% SELL 0.5%
The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 3rd quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 0.8% and previous release of 0.8% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.
However, we'll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.5% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 1.1% or better. Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
For more information on my news trading methods:
Henry's news trading methods
The Market
Recent market is consolidating from yesterday's heavy risk aversion sentiment due to the geopolitical instability in Asia (North & South Korea), Sovereign Debt in Europe, China's plan to control inflation, and another major raid in Wallstreet for possible Ponzi scheme... The overall sentiment is for the safety of USD and JPY, therefore I'd be very careful when going against that sentiment...
Additional Thoughts
I'd be paying attention to the EURUSD pair for market direction today... if EURUSD start to tumble again, there is no reason to go LONG on the GBPUSD even if we get a strong number...
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.
Definition
Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Historical Chart & Data for UK Revised GDP
Thanks,
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.1% SELL 0.5%
The Trade Plan
Since this is the second release of the 3rd quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 0.8% and previous release of 0.8% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.
However, we'll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.5% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 1.1% or better. Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
For more information on my news trading methods:
Henry's news trading methods
The Market
Recent market is consolidating from yesterday's heavy risk aversion sentiment due to the geopolitical instability in Asia (North & South Korea), Sovereign Debt in Europe, China's plan to control inflation, and another major raid in Wallstreet for possible Ponzi scheme... The overall sentiment is for the safety of USD and JPY, therefore I'd be very careful when going against that sentiment...
Additional Thoughts
I'd be paying attention to the EURUSD pair for market direction today... if EURUSD start to tumble again, there is no reason to go LONG on the GBPUSD even if we get a strong number...
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.
Definition
Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Historical Chart & Data for UK Revised GDP
Thanks,
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