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Forex Signal (Wed November 3 2010, 8:30pm NY Time EDT) - AU Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Nov 2, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 5, 2010
    Likes Received:
    We’ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you’ve been following news out of Australia, you’d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here’s the forecast:

    8:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.3%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%

    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 1.0% (or better) we'll look to buy and if we get -0.1% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.

    We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we'll do the 3 W's. Wait for the deviation, wait for the market to move with momentum first, and wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry's News Trading Method

    The Market
    AUD/USD is at historical high level currently and with RBA surprising the market with a rate hike yesterday, we should see some limited volatility in the market unless we get a strong surprise to the upside again.

    However, with AUDUSD at the current overbought level, unless there is an endless supply of positive data for AUD, retracement is inevitable. I would be very cautious at going LONG on AUDUSD pair, as we've breached parity since yesterday.

    Additional Thoughts
    AUDUSD is a very slow moving currency pair. If the release hits our deviation, we may have to jump in sooner than later... We could see very little retracement, if any, if we get a huge surprise in the market. I am more inclined to SELL AUDUSD than to BUY AUDUSD, and I believe market is likely to move more on a weaker than expected Retail Sales release...

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.

    “Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

    Historical Chart & Data For AU Retail Sales


    #1 Henry Liu, Nov 2, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Ubtex

    Ubtex Recruit

    Oct 29, 2010
    Likes Received:
    Thanks henry Liu

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