Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it’s usually released during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the market. Here is the forecast:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.1 Previous 57.3
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 59.1 SELL 55.0
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 59.1 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 55.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
The Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 57.1. Since PMI’s medium point is at 50, this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector). If we get a 60 or better release, we should see some strong demand in the GBP especially after the past few days of heavy GBP sell-offs.
Additional Thoughts
We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if our tradable figures are hit. I'm expecting to see demand rise for GBP even on an inline with expectation release due to the recent rapid depreciation of GBP, making it somewhat undervalued in the short term.
Pre-news Considerations
Since this is a leading indicator and the market has remained at the current level (56~58) since February, I am not expecting any pre-news sentiment.
DEFINITION
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”
Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI
Thanks,
4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.1 Previous 57.3
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 59.1 SELL 55.0
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint that the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..) , therefore market should react to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 59.1 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 55.0 or worse, we’ll be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
The Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 57.1. Since PMI’s medium point is at 50, this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector). If we get a 60 or better release, we should see some strong demand in the GBP especially after the past few days of heavy GBP sell-offs.
Additional Thoughts
We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if our tradable figures are hit. I'm expecting to see demand rise for GBP even on an inline with expectation release due to the recent rapid depreciation of GBP, making it somewhat undervalued in the short term.
Pre-news Considerations
Since this is a leading indicator and the market has remained at the current level (56~58) since February, I am not expecting any pre-news sentiment.
DEFINITION
“UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”
Historical Chart & Data For UK Manufacturing PMI
Thanks,
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