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Forex Signal (Wed September 22 2010, 6:45pm NY Time EDT) - NZ GDP q/q...

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Sep 21, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We'll be getting the quarterly release of New Zealand's GDP, and because it is a quarterly release, market tends to pay more attention to it, thus more volatility is expected. Here's forecast:

    6:45pm NZ GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.6%
    Action: NZD/USD BUY 1.1% SELL 0.5%

    The Trade Plan

    The expected consensus number is 0.8%, and the safe deviation is 0.3%, in the event it is hit, we should see market move 40 pips within the hour.

    We'll be looking to BUY the NZDUSD if the release is at 1.1% or better, or we'll SELL NZDUSD is the release is 0.5% or worse. We'll be using our standard after-news retracement trading method.

    For more information on the Retracement Method, please read:
    Henry Liu's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    NZD has been benefitting from the weakness in USD and it is likely that on a better than expected release, NZDUSD may gain significantly.

    However, with the recent economic slowdown in New Zealand, adding the aftermaths of the earthquake, this release may be the best quarter for some time, as the future for NZ's economy is bleak at best.

    Additional Thoughts
    NZDUSD is a slow yet steady currency pair. If we do get our deviation, we should get in the market as soon as possible...

    However, I am more inclined to a SELL rather than a BUY, as the outlook NZ is relatively grim.

    Pre-news Trading
    Since market is likely to be driven by risk sentiment, it's probably best to stay out of the market.

    Definition
    “Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation’s currency.”

    Historical Data & Chart For NZ GDP q/q

    Thanks,

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Sep 21, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016

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