Forex Signal (Wednesday August 3, 2011 - 6:45pm NY Time EDT) - NZ Employment Change

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
NZ Employment Change
Forecast 0.1%
Previous 1.4%
Pair to trade: NZD/USD
Triggers we need: 0.8 BUY / SELL -0.8

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: Released quarterly, about 35 days after the quarter ends

About our Triggers:
If NZ Employment Change comes out at -0.5 or more negative using our trigger of -0.8 NZD/USD should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at +0.9 or higher using our trigger +0.8 trigger NZD/USD should go up by about 35 pips

+/- 0.8 deviation is not that much, there is a real risk for a conflict with the unemployment number. I will not be trading spike on this release due to a possible conflict, However I believe that if we get a small conflict, we should still see a decent price action.

Why do we care?
It's a leading indicator of Job creation and is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. This data is released extremely late; it's the earliest indication of the employment situation and tends to create market impact.

Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Please keep in mind possibility of Unemployment number before entering any of these strategies.

I will NOT recommend spike trading for this release.

If the unemployment rate deviates by +/- 0.2 or more and conflicts with the employment change I will not look to enter this trade.

If all numbers go well I will look at the following strategy, I will look for a 50% retracemeant in the original spike before entering a trade; once entered I will close my whole position as soon as spike is just before original high as NZD pairs tend to have a great reversal effect.

Historical Chart and Data for NZ Employment Change

What is NZ Employment Change?
Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous quater. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labour conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
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Hi Stavro ,

i wanna thank you for mentioning the possible sell-off if the AUD keep their cash rate the same , i ended up with a nice profitable trade


julien V.

thanks stavro !

As I just entered long on the kiwi , at the end of the recent pullback, I will keep an eye on the chart at 6:45....
In case of bad news, I wish my stop loss will prevent me from being kicked out of the trade.
Thx again
I've got a newbie question :
where to find those releases : Is there any free good news site ?
Have a nice pipped day !
julien, France


news site

one place you can find free news releases is forex Then go to the calender:)