1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Wednesday August 3, 2011 - 6:45pm NY Time EDT) - NZ Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Aug 2, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    NZ Employment Change
    Forecast 0.1%
    Previous 1.4%
    Pair to trade: NZD/USD
    Triggers we need: 0.8 BUY / SELL -0.8


    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: Released quarterly, about 35 days after the quarter ends

    About our Triggers:
    If NZ Employment Change comes out at -0.5 or more negative using our trigger of -0.8 NZD/USD should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at +0.9 or higher using our trigger +0.8 trigger NZD/USD should go up by about 35 pips

    +/- 0.8 deviation is not that much, there is a real risk for a conflict with the unemployment number. I will not be trading spike on this release due to a possible conflict, However I believe that if we get a small conflict, we should still see a decent price action.

    Why do we care?
    It's a leading indicator of Job creation and is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. This data is released extremely late; it's the earliest indication of the employment situation and tends to create market impact.

    Method to trade this: Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
    Please keep in mind possibility of Unemployment number before entering any of these strategies.

    I will NOT recommend spike trading for this release.

    If the unemployment rate deviates by +/- 0.2 or more and conflicts with the employment change I will not look to enter this trade.

    If all numbers go well I will look at the following strategy, I will look for a 50% retracemeant in the original spike before entering a trade; once entered I will close my whole position as soon as spike is just before original high as NZD pairs tend to have a great reversal effect.

    Historical Chart and Data for NZ Employment Change


    What is NZ Employment Change?
    Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous quater. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labour conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Aug 2, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. DJG

    DJG Corporal

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2011
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    1
    Hi Stavro ,

    i wanna thank you for mentioning the possible sell-off if the AUD keep their cash rate the same , i ended up with a nice profitable trade

    regards
    D
     
  3. alvin050

    alvin050 Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2008
    Messages:
    62
    Likes Received:
    0
    Your analysis of NZ Employment is very insightful
     
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    Messages:
    547
    Likes Received:
    1
    thanks guys, i hope you enjoy my work i put a lot of time and effrot in these reports
     
  5. julien V.

    julien V. Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    thanks stavro !

    As I just entered long on the kiwi , at the end of the recent pullback, I will keep an eye on the chart at 6:45....
    In case of bad news, I wish my stop loss will prevent me from being kicked out of the trade.
    Thx again
    I've got a newbie question :
    where to find those releases : Is there any free good news site ?
    Have a nice pipped day !
    julien, France
     
  6. steve751

    steve751 Recruit

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2009
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    news site

    Julien,
    one place you can find free news releases is forex factory.com. Then go to the calender:)
     
  7. Callen

    Callen Recruit

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    14
    Likes Received:
    0
    No deviation.. SAD :(
     
  8. julien V.

    julien V. Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Tanks Steve !

    Tanks Steve ! I'll take a look :)
     

Share This Page