Forex Signal (Wednesday March 7, 2012 - 8:15am EDT) - ADP NFP Payroll Change

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant

Please see my trade plan for US Non-Farm Payroll Change

ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change
Forecast 205K
Previous 170K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY and USD/CHF

Triggers we need:

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Actual forecast is good for the currency
Occurrence: This data Released monthly

About our Triggers:
Today we have ADP NFP Change; it is forecasted to arrive at 205K.
We are using triggers of 50 to buy USD/CHF If the number comes out at +255 or better we wil BUY USD/CHF

If the news release comes out at 155K or lower I will SHORT USD/JPY We are using for -50 trigger for the short.

We should see a spike of about 30 pips should our numbers be triggered.

What is it? Why do we care?
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government's non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Method to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

See my Euro crisis views

Keep in Mind
Please keep in mind possibility of Revision number before entering any of pre or post strategies.

I'd recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets and if you are using an auto clicker.

After News trade
I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike, and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be Just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level looking at a 15 min time frame.

Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Payroll Change

All the best

Stavro D’Amore