Forex Signal (Wednesday September 7, 2011 – 10:00am EDT) – CA IVEY PMI

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547

Canadian IVEY PMI
Forecast 46.7
Previous 45.4
Pair to trade: USD/CAD

Numbers we need:
BUY USD/CAD 43.5
SELL USD/CAD 49.9


Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: 5 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Very Good, we can see 35 pips on initial spike

About our Triggers:
CA IVEY is forecasted to arrive at 43.5
We are looking for a deviation of 3.2 either way on this trade.
If we get 43.5 or lower I will look to enter a LONG position on USD/CAD and if we get
49.9 or higher I will go LONG on USD/CAD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 35 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 20% retrace on the initial spike don’t be fooled and get in unless you see at least 30%

What is it? And why does the market care?
The Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the manufacturing section and production growth in Canada.
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD.
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

I do recommend spike trading as an option also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker.

I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

Historical Chart and Data for CA IVEY PMI

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 
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Irena

Private
Messages
11
News

Hi Stavro,
Thanks for your analysis.
Can you recommend a source for news announcements, which is possibly free and where the news can be heard in real time?
Thanks again,
Irena :D
 

digamer

Private, 1st Class
Messages
30
triggers

It came out with 10.9 deviation against suggested 3.2..yet the impact was very small, even to wrong direction.

May be the market situation and specially the BOC rate statement's impact should have been mentioned in analysis? Also previous months deviations vs impact could have been mentioned?
Personally, for me it would be way more helpful to read that then the basic copy-paste definition of the event.

I remember Henry sharing his thoughts on market situation and events connected to specific news, instead of just copy-paste triggers and "my retracement stragegy"-text to every post.

Stavro, could you please consider doing that too?..it would help the beginners much more.
 

Cinar

Private
Messages
22
unexpected.

Hi,

The data is very good for the movement but the market do not move in the expected direction.

Thanks for your signals.
 

Boko Maru

Sergeant
Messages
250
It came out with 10.9 deviation against suggested 3.2..yet the impact was very small, even to wrong direction.

May be the market situation and specially the BOC rate statement's impact should have been mentioned in analysis? Also previous months deviations vs impact could have been mentioned?
Personally, for me it would be way more helpful to read that then the basic copy-paste definition of the event.

I remember Henry sharing his thoughts on market situation and events connected to specific news, instead of just copy-paste triggers and "my retracement stragegy"-text to every post.

Stavro, could you please consider doing that too?..it would help the beginners much more.
Just my opinion, but this release is total crap for news trading right now and it has been for quite a while. I stopped trading it months ago. It used to produce some nice moves, but that was a long time ago. Recently, it's been highly unpredictable, and in my view not worth the time to even watch it. There are far better reports to trade; why risk your money on something like this? But to each his own...
 

digamer

Private, 1st Class
Messages
30
Just my opinion, but this release is total crap for news trading right now and it has been for quite a while. I stopped trading it months ago. It used to produce some nice moves, but that was a long time ago. Recently, it's been highly unpredictable, and in my view not worth the time to even watch it. There are far better reports to trade; why risk your money on something like this? But to each his own...
I totally agree...and do not trade this one myself. My point was to kindly ask for another, much more informative signal analysis approach for all the events. Why, for instance, not to check previous dev. vs impact results, some current market situation etc...instead of simply copying the "release definition" to each and every post?

Boko Maru, you suggested other free news signals provider to me some time ago. I found it very helpful and professional indeed, thank you!
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,534
"Boko Maru, you suggested other free news signals provider to me some time ago. I found it very helpful and professional indeed,...."

I have been in and out of this site and must have missed that one.

Please can you guys post those "free sites" again, or refer me to that post?

Thank you & cheers!
 

digamer

Private, 1st Class
Messages
30
"Boko Maru, you suggested other free news signals provider to me some time ago. I found it very helpful and professional indeed,...."

I have been in and out of this site and must have missed that one.

Please can you guys post those "free sites" again, or refer me to that post?

Thank you & cheers!
Here you go:

Forex News Trading - Fx Market News with SNW

Forex Trading Signals & Analysis - Spike and Day Trading

I really hope that FPA free signals could someday become of the same professional level...and not just copy-paste posts each month.
 

Boko Maru

Sergeant
Messages
250
Here you go:

Forex News Trading - Fx Market News with SNW

Forex Trading Signals & Analysis - Spike and Day Trading

I really hope that FPA free signals could someday become of the same professional level...and not just copy-paste posts each month.
Ok yes I understand what you're saying about the signals. I guess I was just a bit puzzled why Stavro was listing CAD Ivey at all, but no biggie.

Re. the news signal sites above, glad you've found them useful. For some reason though the Profit Mongers/Secret FX Trading site hasn't updated this week with any new signals. That's odd as they usually update almost daily; not sure what's up there...
 
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