Forex Signal (Wednesday September 7, 2011 – 9:30pm EDT) – AU Employment Change

[Stavro D'Amore]

Hello All,

Today we have AU Employment Change numbers due to arrive, please be mindful of the bellow trade plan and be diligent with your trading.

AU Employment Change
Forecast 10K
Previous -0.1K%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD

Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD 35K
SELL AUD/USD -15K

Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: monthly 10 days after month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

About our Triggers:
AU Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 10K
We are looking for a deviation of 25K to the upside to BUY AUD/USD and a deviation of 25K to the downside to SHORT AUD/USD
So the summary is we get 35K or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/ USD/ and if we get -15K or lower I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike.
This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike so I recommend trading the retracement method as stated bellow.

NOTE: We can have a conflict of AU Unemployment numbers that is due to arrive the same time, This is forecasted at 5.1% and is expected to come at 5.1% if it stays as expected there will be no conflict

What is it? And why does the market care?
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in Australia.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in Australia and should be taken as positive for the AUD.

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

There is no Pre news; however in saying this we might see a little sell off in the AUD before the release.

I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.

I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

Historical Chart and Data for AU Employment Change

All the best

Stavro D’Amore

 

[roney]

liquidity

Everyone knows that liquidity is bad at the moment due to summer holidays and big traders absence .But your stock statement "liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker" has really confused me.Could you lindly clarify your statement.Thanks

 

[Stavro D'Amore]

Everyone knows that liquidity is bad at the moment due to summer holidays and big traders absence .But your stock statement "liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker" has really confused me.Could you lindly clarify your statement.Thanks

Yes liquidity is good, we have seen poor volume last few weeks, volumes are actually high at the moment that why the FX market has been able to correct it self over the last week, Pairs such as EURUSD and GBPUSD have come back down to earth at correct fundamental levels.

Regards
Stavro D'Amore