Forex Trading Signal 01/04/08

Felix Homogratus

Commander in Chief
Messages
153
This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

Hi-res.: 01-04-2008.swf

Let's first review what happened today.

Both, the U.S. ADP Employment Change and U.S. Unemployment Claims came out very close to expectations so we had two no trade's, and nothing really to review.

Let's talk about Friday, then.

1. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First, at 1:45 a.m. we will have Swiss CPI coming out. I recommend you to trade y/y number with 0.2 triggers. If the Swiss CPI comes out at 2.00% or higher, then it would be strengthening the Swiss Frank, and I would short either USD/CHF for 30 pips price action, or GBP/CHF for 40 to 50 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.6% or lower, that would be weakening the Swiss Frank, and I would go long on USD/CHF or GBP/CHF, looking for 30 and 40 to 50 pips, respectively. You can make more pips on GBP/CHF but sometimes the spread is too big to take a risk. Choose a pair wisely based on your broker.

2. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 51.5. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger so if it comes out at 50.5 or lower, I would short GBP/USD, looking for 30 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 52.5 or higher, then it would be strengthening the pound, and we should see 30 pips or more move up.

3. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. New York time we will have the ECB Estimate CPI y/y. It is expected to come out at 3.1%. If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, that would be strengthening the Euro so you can go long EUR/USD, looking for 25-30 pips price action, or more. On the other hand, if it comes out at 2.9% or lower, that would be weakening the Euro, and I would go short on EUR/USD.

4a. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Change. It is expected to come out at 70K. This indicator can give a great opportunity but is very risky as well. I would trade this with 50 trigger so 120K or higher would be a strengthening the U.S. dollar and you can go long on USD/JPY or short on GBP/USD - it would depend on the technicals right before the report. GBP/USD should be OK, and I would look for 50 pips price action. If it comes out 20K or lower, that would be weakening the U.S. dollar, and you can go short on USD/JPY or long on GBP/USD. What makes this report risky is the revision to the prior month. If the revision's deviation is greater than the actual deviation and goes the other direction, it can move the price the other way. For example: if the Non-Farm Payroll comes out at 170K it would be a big potential buy signal on USD/JPY, but if at the same time the prior month was revised down by 120K, then you actually are getting a net negative surprise because you are up 100K this month and down 120K last month, and this could actually be dollar weakening. Be careful with this indicator, then.

4b. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. there is also the Unemployment Change number. Usually it is not a big deal but if it deviates by 0.1 and especially by 0.2, it can take over the move, especially if the deviation on Non-Farm Payroll is small or none. If it comes out at 5.0%, it would be bad for the dollar and you may want to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 4.6% or lower, you may want to buy USD/JPY.

5a. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is not that great indicator, and you would be lucky to grab 20 to 25 pips of it. I would say USD/JPY is the best one to trade it; however, if the USD/JPY looks weird, you can shift to EUR/USD or GBP/USD. I would use 2.5 trigger so if it comes out at 51 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and you may want to sell USD/JPY, looking for 20-25 pips. If it comes out at 56.0 or higher, it would be good for the dollar, and you may want to buy USD/JPY, looking for 20-25 pips price action.

5b. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Canadian Ivey PMI comes out at the same time but is usually late by 5 seconds - that's what I noticed from my own experience. It is expected to come out at 51.0 would trade 3.5 trigger on this one. If you get a signal on both report, USD/CAD may move very well. If it comes out at 54.5 or higher, that would be strengthening for the Canadian dollar, and I would sell the USD/CAD or EUR/CAD, looking for 20 pips and 30 pips, respectively. If it comes out at 47.5 or lower, it would be wakening the Canadian dollar, and you may want to buy USD/CAD or EUR/CAD, and look for 20 and 30 pips, respectively.

That would be all for this week.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
 

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Regarding someone's post from yesterday

Well,

1) Regarding the performance from this signals - well, we do not record performance as there is no way to record such performance (and no need to since this is a free service). The performance would depend on individual's entries and exits which will all depend on chosen pair to trade, and individual's broker(s) and skills to trade. What I can, however, say is that we do have official performance for Diamonds room. That room is currently run by Sir Pips, same guy who record videos that I post here so he trades more less whatever is said here (unless something will change on market right before the report). There is a separate performance for spikes only with SNW weapon (just states "Profit"/"Loss"/"Break Even") and a detailed performance for what we call "after spikes". The "after spike" performance does NOT include spike trades, and according to the performance we recorded, since May 2007 with a risk UP to 2% of original deposit per trade (sometimes it is 1%, sometimes 2%), people should be able to make around +100% if all trades taken. That performance is based on MBTrading quotes.

2) I am not the best person to comment what Felix wrote regarding his signal from the Yacht Party. I did not take such trade, cannot say more about it then. If you did not take it, just skip that.

That's all what I wanted to say,

Thanks
Crazy Cat
 
Last edited:

CheeZeHead

Recruit
Messages
3
What about the GBP/JPY

Hi Sir Pips,
I just wanted to ask a quick question about utilizing the GBPJPY. How come you dont mention using the GY on any UK trades? I think its a great mover on the UK trades like the GBPCHF and the EURCAD for other trades.

thanks,
Chris
 

Pip Monkey

Recruit
Messages
2
Euro CPI

Hey Sir Pips (and Felix) thanks for this great service, specially when it is free. :D

Hey everyone,
What happen with the Euro CPI y/y figure? At first I couldn't find it being listed on this site's calendar (I've checked my filters and they weren't on), so
I got my figure from forexfactory.com, but they shown 2.8% initially, which hit Sir Pip's sell trigger, but prices of course didn't move and now forexfactory is showing 3.1%, and peacearmy's calendar have the figure up show 3.1%.

Anyone else had this problem?


thanks,
monkey.
 

just4funds

Recruit
Messages
2
Where to find the news?

Hey everyone,
What happen with the Euro CPI y/y figure? At first I couldn't find it being listed on this site's calendar (I've checked my filters and they weren't on), so
I got my figure from forexfactory.com, but they shown 2.8% initially, which hit Sir Pip's sell trigger, but prices of course didn't move and now forexfactory is showing 3.1%, and peacearmy's calendar have the figure up show 3.1%.

Which brings me to my question: Since I am new to this site and Forex, did I miss something? Where is the best place to find these news items if I am trying to utilize this free info?

Thanks in advance for any help.
 

Pip Monkey

Recruit
Messages
2
Which brings me to my question: Since I am new to this site and Forex, did I miss something? Where is the best place to find these news items if I am trying to utilize this free info?

Thanks in advance for any help.
You can find the Calendar on the menu bar on the top of this very page. :)
 

just4funds

Recruit
Messages
2
Using the calendar

Great!

Does the calendar fill the information automatically or do I have to refresh my browser window at just the right time?
 

Max

Private, 1st Class
Messages
55
Bravo Guys!

Bravo Guys!
I was a pity did not trade today as you USD/JPY.......
Excellent calculation!
Never trusted in indicator Ivey PMI....
Now I understand that was mistaken!
You have excellent service!!! Thank!!!
 
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