Forex Trading Signal 01/08/08

[Felix Homogratus]

This is Sir Pips.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

Hi-res. 01-08-2008.swf

Let's first review past Friday.

On Friday we had Swiss CPI. It did hit our trigger. The pre-release price on USD/CHF was 1.1128, and it traded down to as low as 1.1100 so only about 28 pips. I was expecting more especially with a very large downtrend we have been seeing all week. Unfortunately, that's all what we had. GBP/CHF traded from 2.1937 down to 2.1846 so GBP/CHF had 90 pips price action; however, it was still completely reversed.

Then we had UK Services PMI. We just missed our buy trigger. The price moved 85 pips so I wonder how many pips it would move if it did hit our trigger. GBP/JPY moved about 130 pips. If you took it because it was close to my trigger, you probably made a good money but the fact is it did not hit the trigger so it was a no trade.

Then we had the CPI out of Euro Zone. It came out exactly as it was expected so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 we had the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It came out at 18K so it did hit our buy signal on GBP/USD. Moreover, the unemployment rate came out at 5.00% with 0.2 deviation which was also pointing towards dollar weakness. They should weaken the dollar very well towards buy GBP/USD or sell USD/JPY. USD/JPY moved 100 pips in a few minutes, and it retraced back. The GBP/USD did not move up that much as it moved about 85 pips but EUR/USD moved a lot better.

Then we had ISM Non-Manufacturing, and it came out very close to expectations so it was a no trade. However, the Canadian Ivey PMI did hit our trigger. This one incredibly overreacted. It moved so quick so I did not get in, and it just kept going from 0.9922 to 1.0090. It was a lot of opportunity to buy USD/CAD on this report.

Let's now talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I think we need to be more conservative on this report and use 5.0 trigger. If it comes out at 4.7% or higher, that would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips move or more. If it comes out at -5.3 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would be very positive for the AUD so you can buy AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move or more. Last month the number really overreacted and we saw 77 pips move on -0.4 deviation but in earlier releases sometimes you got a little more than 20 pips so be careful despite of December release. I think 30 pips is a good expectation - if you get more, great.

That would be all for tomorrow.

If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot

 

[onshore]

And The Aussie did just that up about 32 pips about half an hour
Cheers Felix
Leon

 

[wmased]

wmased

I signed up for your news service for $299 Sunday and received an email acknowledging it but I have not received any correspondence since then...What do I do next???

 

[emadanton]

thanks a lot sir pips for all this and also my greetings to felix

but actually i have a question :

what do u mean by saying "use 5.0 trigger" or "I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one"

as i really don't know what does this mean ??!!!

i also have another question
on Thursday ECB Chairman will Speak , so where can i get a live feed of that on the internet , in other words the action of prices will be according to his speech so how can i see that while it's happening so i can get a piece of the action and also what should i look for in his speech, i mean what he could possibly says that will make me buy and what to make me sell

thanks again for everything

 

[MichalP]

thanks a lot sir pips for all this and also my greetings to felix

but actually i have a question :

what do u mean by saying "use 5.0 trigger" or "I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one"

as i really don't know what does this mean ??!!!

i also have another question
on Thursday ECB Chairman will Speak , so where can i get a live feed of that on the internet , in other words the action of prices will be according to his speech so how can i see that while it's happening so i can get a piece of the action and also what should i look for in his speech, i mean what he could possibly says that will make me buy and what to make me sell

thanks again for everything

It means that if the real value will deviate from the expected value by more than the "trigger" value, it will signal either strengthening or weakening of currency in question thus it will be a signal to buy or to sell the related currency pair. So if the expected value is "-0,3" then if the real value will be at least "-0,3 + 5" (4,7 or higher) or "-0,3 - 5" (-5,3 or lower) that will be a signal.

As for the second question, I would recommend for example the Dow Jones News service. You should look for the tone he would speak (hawkish or dovish) and especially *what* actually he will say (for example if they are going, or they are not going, to cut the interest rates, whether they see the market as a stable or unstable place at the time, what they expect in the near term, whether they have "a good feeling" etc.). Any kind of such statement *might* have an immediate impact on the foreign exchange market.

Hope it did help little bit

 

[Farzad]

Hi guys;
This is my first post here and I am glad I joined this forum although I am a member of SFS for over a year. I would like to thank Sir Pips, Rob Alen, Crazy Cat and specially Felix Homogratus for creating this society to bring more opportunities to Forex Traders. Good luck.

 

[emadanton]

It means that if the real value will deviate from the expected value by more than the "trigger" value, it will signal either strengthening or weakening of currency in question thus it will be a signal to buy or to sell the related currency pair. So if the expected value is "-0,3" then if the real value will be at least "-0,3 + 5" (4,7 or higher) or "-0,3 - 5" (-5,3 or lower) that will be a signal.

As for the second question, I would recommend for example the Dow Jones News service. You should look for the tone he would speak (hawkish or dovish) and especially *what* actually he will say (for example if they are going, or they are not going, to cut the interest rates, whether they see the market as a stable or unstable place at the time, what they expect in the near term, whether they have "a good feeling" etc.). Any kind of such statement *might* have an immediate impact on the foreign exchange market.

Hope it did help little bit

thanks a lot MichalP for ur reply , i really appreciate it
hope i can be able to help sometime
do u happen to have a link to the Dow Jones News service as well or should i just search for it

 

[Valeria]

Hi! Hello everybody my first post here, although been a long time folowing Felix and them! alway enjoy reading you guys!
I will accept the suggestio posted here and introduce myself: I live in Argentina (so sorry if my english is not the best) and i have been studing and trading forex for the last 4 years.. I rather prefer always technical, yet my mind is open to learn all i can, and I know Felix has a great point here, trading fndamentals...
ok enough! I in fact have a way to acces Dow Jones news LIVE for free although i'm not sure is COMPLETY honest... and posting that here.... where we are always screaming abot unhonest brokers.... ummmmm :embarrassed:
anyway... can i post my mail? not sure about that, will wait for the admnistrator permition... in that case I can told you about this DJNEWS
Have you all great traing days!

 

[MichalP]

DJ

Well, I am using DJ news as a part of FXstreet.com's Premium Services, which are not for free, though.
So I would be definitely interested in Valeria's secret

 

[Valeria]

newss

Sorry it's not right