Hi there my Forex friend 
Sorry folks for the last signal, I was enjoying some time out in the city with some friends and things ran a lot later than I thought. As for yesterday, MASSIVE job losses hit the ADP number hard and caused intial USD weakness, but like I tried to tell people in the Diamonds room and in the video yesterday (I think), really bad US economic news most likely will NOT cause the USD to lose strength in the long term... it's only a short term knee jerk. The safer trades for really bad news are risk aversion trades like the yen crosses short, short the stock market, long on bonds, short on commodities, etc. We got short on the USD/JPY along with the news and made some decent pips there on a scalp, but we also hit a major daily chart fib and a trendline around 1.3740 on the EUR/USD after the report and exhausted out there, so we called another excellent trade short on the EU for a swing trade and/or position trade and that is working quite nicely. Remember I talked about the FOMC minutes released hinting at massive protracted job losses, so any confirmation of that out of the ADP or Initial Jobless Claims would likely push the markets into a tailspin in advance of Friday's nonfarm payroll figures. Well, that's exactly what happened with the huge -693K ADP release. I expect further stock weakness and risk aversion currency flows to continue until Friday's session. My gut tells me most of the losses will come in advance of NFP, and profits will be taken after the release causing a reversal or at least a funky whipsaw.
Tomorrow we have 2 pieces of economic news to focus on:
0700 UK Interest Rate Decision; the official consensus is a 0.50% cut to 1.50%, but the real consensus is somewhere between 0.50% cut and 0.75% cut.
If they cut rates by 1.00% or more, we should see initial weakness in the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY by 40 pips or so, followed by a sharp turn around upwards.
If they cut rates by 0.25% or less, we should see initial strength on GBP/USD by 20-50 pips or so, followed by a sharp reversal downwards.
If they release a statement, the language will also play a key factor in the direction and magnitude of the move.
0830 US Initial Jobless Claims; 545K expected, I think people are going to be expecting something a little worse, so...
If it comes out at 600K or higher, that should be enough to short USD/JPY for 40-50 pips to the downside.
If it comes out at 520K or lower, that should be reassuring for USD/JPY and be good for 40 pips upwards.
That's it for tomorrow's news. I'm sorry I got back late and didn't have time for a video tonight as I have a lot to say, but I'll try to put it all together for you guys in tomorrow's video which I'll attempt to get out earlier than usual.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Sorry folks for the last signal, I was enjoying some time out in the city with some friends and things ran a lot later than I thought. As for yesterday, MASSIVE job losses hit the ADP number hard and caused intial USD weakness, but like I tried to tell people in the Diamonds room and in the video yesterday (I think), really bad US economic news most likely will NOT cause the USD to lose strength in the long term... it's only a short term knee jerk. The safer trades for really bad news are risk aversion trades like the yen crosses short, short the stock market, long on bonds, short on commodities, etc. We got short on the USD/JPY along with the news and made some decent pips there on a scalp, but we also hit a major daily chart fib and a trendline around 1.3740 on the EUR/USD after the report and exhausted out there, so we called another excellent trade short on the EU for a swing trade and/or position trade and that is working quite nicely. Remember I talked about the FOMC minutes released hinting at massive protracted job losses, so any confirmation of that out of the ADP or Initial Jobless Claims would likely push the markets into a tailspin in advance of Friday's nonfarm payroll figures. Well, that's exactly what happened with the huge -693K ADP release. I expect further stock weakness and risk aversion currency flows to continue until Friday's session. My gut tells me most of the losses will come in advance of NFP, and profits will be taken after the release causing a reversal or at least a funky whipsaw.
Tomorrow we have 2 pieces of economic news to focus on:
0700 UK Interest Rate Decision; the official consensus is a 0.50% cut to 1.50%, but the real consensus is somewhere between 0.50% cut and 0.75% cut.
If they cut rates by 1.00% or more, we should see initial weakness in the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY by 40 pips or so, followed by a sharp turn around upwards.
If they cut rates by 0.25% or less, we should see initial strength on GBP/USD by 20-50 pips or so, followed by a sharp reversal downwards.
If they release a statement, the language will also play a key factor in the direction and magnitude of the move.
0830 US Initial Jobless Claims; 545K expected, I think people are going to be expecting something a little worse, so...
If it comes out at 600K or higher, that should be enough to short USD/JPY for 40-50 pips to the downside.
If it comes out at 520K or lower, that should be reassuring for USD/JPY and be good for 40 pips upwards.
That's it for tomorrow's news. I'm sorry I got back late and didn't have time for a video tonight as I have a lot to say, but I'll try to put it all together for you guys in tomorrow's video which I'll attempt to get out earlier than usual.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
