This is Sir Pips.
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it. TWO (2) different videos today.
Part 1: HI-res.: 01-30-2008review.swf
Part 2: HI-res.: 01-30-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
The first report we were watching was U.S. Durable Goods X Transportation. It came out at 2.6 versus 0.1 expected so it was a sell signal on EUR/USD. Just 30 minutes later we had another report that actually gave us a buy signal on EUR/USD. In the Diamonds room I suggested trading the Durable Goods on EUR/USD and since we were already in that trade, we traded the other report on USD/JPY. It did not work as expected but eventually it caught up. The best pair to choose was USD/CHF. Nevertheless, it seems it was another housing indicator that failed so we need to be more careful in the future.
Tomorrow we are going to have a few important indicators coming out.
1. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
First, we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. I usually say trade it with 75K or even 100K trigger. However, I don't recommend to put any trade on this report unless you know what you are doing. All because of the U.S. Interest Rate statement that is coming out at 2:15 p.m. so it is hard to judge how the market will react on the ADP indicator right before the interest statement.
2. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 we will have the GDP Annualized q/q which is much more powerful that the ADP. It is expected to come out at 1.2% for the 4th quarter. I would trade this with 0.5% deviation. Keep in mind that even with 0.5 deviation (which is significant) sometimes it hits only 20 to 30 pips target on the EUR/USD or USD/CHF. This is also a situation where you may want to stay out. I personally will be trading it put I will also put less money than usually on this trade. If it coms out at 1.7% or better, I would look to buy the USD/JPY. If it comes out at 0.7% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for about 30 pips price action. It may make more pips but I would just be careful here. Why? The interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m....
3. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate Statement coming out. Currently it is at 3.50%, and it is expected they will cut it off down to 3.00%. Based on my sources, 75 to 80% chance they will cut by 0.50%, and about 20 to 25% chance they will cut only by 0.25%. Keep in mind that a week ago on Tuesday they lowered the rates by 0.75% from 4.25% to 3.50%. That means that in a matter of a few days they would cut the rates by as much as 1.25% so there is a lot of worries and no one wants to put any bigger bet on one or another direction. Here is how I would trade it: if they cut by 0.75% from 3.50% to 2.75%, that would be a very weak signal for the U.S. dollar so you may want to sell USD/CHF or buy GBP/USD or buy AUD/USD or buy EUR/USD, looking for a ton of pips such as 60 or 70 pips, potentially more. This is, however, highly unlikely. Also, if they keep the rates unchanged at 3.50%, it is going to be very good for the U.S. dollar, and I would stay away from the USD/JPY and I would focus on GBP/USD, AUD/USD or EUR/USD to sell them. This also would give a lot of pips. If they cut only by 0.25%, that would be a surprise because the market expects a cut by 0.50, so it also would be good for the U.S. dollar and disappointing for the equity market, and you would have a good selling opportunity on EUR/USD, GBP/USD or AUD/USD, looking for about 40 to 50 pips. If they cut by 0.50% that would be as expected but it would bring some relief to the market so I think it could be a buying opportunity on GBP/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD even if it is as expected. Trade less money on as expected signal but still you can give a try; however, do not rush into the trade.
PLEASE, watch the video for MORE details.
If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to www.forexdiamonds.com and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.
Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it. TWO (2) different videos today.
Part 1: HI-res.: 01-30-2008review.swf
Part 2: HI-res.: 01-30-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
The first report we were watching was U.S. Durable Goods X Transportation. It came out at 2.6 versus 0.1 expected so it was a sell signal on EUR/USD. Just 30 minutes later we had another report that actually gave us a buy signal on EUR/USD. In the Diamonds room I suggested trading the Durable Goods on EUR/USD and since we were already in that trade, we traded the other report on USD/JPY. It did not work as expected but eventually it caught up. The best pair to choose was USD/CHF. Nevertheless, it seems it was another housing indicator that failed so we need to be more careful in the future.
Tomorrow we are going to have a few important indicators coming out.
1. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
First, we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. I usually say trade it with 75K or even 100K trigger. However, I don't recommend to put any trade on this report unless you know what you are doing. All because of the U.S. Interest Rate statement that is coming out at 2:15 p.m. so it is hard to judge how the market will react on the ADP indicator right before the interest statement.
2. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 we will have the GDP Annualized q/q which is much more powerful that the ADP. It is expected to come out at 1.2% for the 4th quarter. I would trade this with 0.5% deviation. Keep in mind that even with 0.5 deviation (which is significant) sometimes it hits only 20 to 30 pips target on the EUR/USD or USD/CHF. This is also a situation where you may want to stay out. I personally will be trading it put I will also put less money than usually on this trade. If it coms out at 1.7% or better, I would look to buy the USD/JPY. If it comes out at 0.7% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for about 30 pips price action. It may make more pips but I would just be careful here. Why? The interest rate decision at 2:15 p.m....
3. Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate Statement coming out. Currently it is at 3.50%, and it is expected they will cut it off down to 3.00%. Based on my sources, 75 to 80% chance they will cut by 0.50%, and about 20 to 25% chance they will cut only by 0.25%. Keep in mind that a week ago on Tuesday they lowered the rates by 0.75% from 4.25% to 3.50%. That means that in a matter of a few days they would cut the rates by as much as 1.25% so there is a lot of worries and no one wants to put any bigger bet on one or another direction. Here is how I would trade it: if they cut by 0.75% from 3.50% to 2.75%, that would be a very weak signal for the U.S. dollar so you may want to sell USD/CHF or buy GBP/USD or buy AUD/USD or buy EUR/USD, looking for a ton of pips such as 60 or 70 pips, potentially more. This is, however, highly unlikely. Also, if they keep the rates unchanged at 3.50%, it is going to be very good for the U.S. dollar, and I would stay away from the USD/JPY and I would focus on GBP/USD, AUD/USD or EUR/USD to sell them. This also would give a lot of pips. If they cut only by 0.25%, that would be a surprise because the market expects a cut by 0.50, so it also would be good for the U.S. dollar and disappointing for the equity market, and you would have a good selling opportunity on EUR/USD, GBP/USD or AUD/USD, looking for about 40 to 50 pips. If they cut by 0.50% that would be as expected but it would bring some relief to the market so I think it could be a buying opportunity on GBP/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD even if it is as expected. Trade less money on as expected signal but still you can give a try; however, do not rush into the trade.
PLEASE, watch the video for MORE details.
If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to www.forexdiamonds.com and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.
Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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