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Forex Trading Signal 02/04/08

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Feb 4, 2008.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

    Sep 30, 2007
    Likes Received:
    This is Sir Pips.

    If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

    HI-res.: 02-04-2008.swf

    Let's first review what happened earlier today.

    On Friday we had UK Manufacturing PMI. It almost did out trigger but since "almost" DNE in the Forex world, it was a no trade. The signal did not work too well but eventually it GBP/USD went down. Actually it was good it was a no trade, no regrets here.

    At 8:30 we had U.S. Non-Farm Payroll together with Employment Change coming out. The NFP came out -17K versus 55K expected. The Employment Rate came out a little bit better but not by 0.2. We also had conflicting revision which canceled each other out. We saw 90 pips down on USD/JPY, and it started recovering.

    Then ISM Manufacturing came out very high, I don't remember if I ever seen 3.7 deviation on this indicator. Not only it came out higher, it came out positive signaling expansion instead of expected contraction. USD/JPY traded high about 50 pips, and the double top was a great place to get out.

    So, on Friday we had two conflicting signals: a bad NFP and a good ISM Manufacturing.


    On Monday we will have a few opportunities to enter a good trade.

    1. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
    At 4:45 p.m. New York time we will have New Zealand Labor Cost q/q. It is a new indicator so it is kind of hard to predict how it is going to perform. It is expected to come out at 0.9% and I would use 0.2 trigger on it. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, I would consider buying New Zealand dollar or at least watch it. I am not sure what kind of price action we would get, I am thinking of 25 pips or so. If it comes out low at 0.7% or lower, you may want to sell New Zealand dollar, and expect 20 to 25 pips or so. Watch out for any possible conflicts with Average Earnings that are supposed to come out at 0.8% so in case of conflict just stay out. If you don't want to trade it which is very understandable, at least watch the price action and see what will happen.

    2. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
    At 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian Retail Sales. The interest statement that will be announcement a few hours later can either make this report stronger or weaker but most likely it is going to make it less important. Last month 0.3 deviation created great price actions; however, I would like to be more conservative here. I will be trading 0.4 trigger just because of that interest rate statement. Keep a closed eye on the Retail Sales X Inflation q/q that is expected to come out at 1.1% - make sure there is no conflict there. The retail sales m/m is expected at 0.6%, and it it comes out at 1.0%, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 25 to 35 pips of the price action. It if comes out at 0.2% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 25 to 35 pips of price action. Avoid conflicts there.

    3. Monday, February 04th, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
    At 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement coming out. They are expected to raise rates from 6.75 to 7.00%. About 8% of economists expect them to leave the rate unchanged. If they leave the rate unchanged, it would be a sell signal on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, and expect 50 to 70 pips of the price action. If they hike the rates to 7.00%, the reaction will mostly depend on the commentary. They should comment whether they will hike or not, so keep pay attention to it.

    I hope this all does make sense. It is 3:11 a.m. here in Chicago :)

    That's all for Monday.

    If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education and read everything about this service. It is a live trading service I provide with Felix, and I will be able to show you exactly what I am doing as I am leading hundreds of traders just like you every day with very clear strategies on when to get in and get out. As people are following my trades, they are learning how to trade the news, feel comfortable with trading and make good profits. We offer 21 days free trial so you can just try it and see how you like it.

    Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

    To Our Success!
    -Sir Pipsalot

    The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
    For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
    #1 Crazy Cat, Feb 4, 2008
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. mohamad83

    mohamad83 Recruit

    Dec 9, 2007
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    sarry in all posts you say some percents.and do trade on them for example if 1.1% i wiil buy...what are these?wher can i learn them?
  3. Hisashi

    Hisashi Recruit

    Jan 1, 2008
    Likes Received:
    Conflicting Results

    I have been using SNW for 3 months and I am very satisfied with it including your great analysis.
    Very good job!!

    We sometimes get conflicting results, like lower than expected for the monthly CPI but higher than expected for the quarterly CPI.
    I see the monthly one more important and trade based on it rather than the quarterly data, but I sometimes get a bizarre result.

    Then, if I do not want to trade when the results are conflicting, do I need to enter manually without using HyperClick?
    What happens if I check both the monthly one and the quarterly one, and each gives me opposite signals?
  4. WanderingWOW

    WanderingWOW Recruit

    Nov 5, 2007
    Likes Received:
    SP Link

    Hey SP, just a quick note, your link at the bottom of your latest update is messed up. Not a biggie but thought you would like to know.

    "If news trading seems to be very interesting for you, then I suggest you to go to Error: unsupported media type.2 and read everything about this service."
  5. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

    Oct 3, 2007
    Likes Received:
    I wonder if they forgot to install the module for the new holographic media type? :D

    I think it was probably a link to forexdiamonds.com that had a typo in it. CrazyCat should notice it sooner or later.
  6. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

    Sep 30, 2007
    Likes Received:
    Thank you!

    Thank you very much! This is a situation when the website tries to be smarter than it is and is changing content by itself. Every time it sees a link, it adds tags as it was a YouTube video so I have to fix that every time manually. I simply forgot there is a link at the end of the email. :)

    Crazy Cat

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