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Forex Trading Signal 02/06/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Feb 6, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    02-06-2009.swf

    If you didn't see last night's video, make sure to watch it, or at least watch the second half I uploaded to YouTube - fxdiamonds's Channel where I make some bold market predictions for the coming days and weeks. I don't upload all the signals there or anything (too much of a pain) but I will try to put some more interesting things up there.

    Anyways, we had both ECB and UK interest rate decisions come out inline with expectations, so nothing big to trade off of there. There was some commentary accompanying the UK interest rate decision and from Trichet's speech that gave some price action though.

    As for tomorrow:

    0430 UK Industrial production (-1.2% expected) - I would look to trade a 1% trigger, but only with manufacturing production in agreement. If PPI comes out the same way, that should help it push further, if PPI comes out in the opposite direction, that should shorten the life of the trade.
    If it comes out at -2.2% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 30-40 pips fairly quickly.
    If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rise 30-40 pips fairly quickly.

    0700 CAD Employment Change (-40K expected) - I recommend holding out for a wider deviation here as it hits huge triggers just about every other month and those are the types of deviations I want to trade.
    If it comes out at -70K or lower, look to go long USD/CAD or EUR/CAD for 40-50 pips.
    If it comes out at -10K or higher, look to short USD/CAD or EUR/CAD for 40-50 pips.

    0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-540K expected) - I think a nice wide 100K trigger should keep you safe if you want a quick trade in the direction of the news, and to help bias the overall direction; however, USD/JPY will likely have a strong retracement somewhat early, so you can look to either grab the initial action, or wait for it to taper off and take it the other way. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY should create a more medium term trading opportunity as things settle down. Look out for conflicts from either big revsisions to prior numbers or from the unemployment rate.
    If it comes out at -640K or lower, look to short USD/JPY for a quick 40+ pips, or look to buy USD/JPY in the first few mintues when it appears to be bottoming out.
    If it comes out at -440K or higher, look to buy USD/JPY for a quick 40+ pips, or look to short USD/JPY in the first few mintues when it appears to be topping out.

    For more insight, check out tonight's video. Take care and good luck trading!

    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. y.caesar

    y.caesar Recruit

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    RE: revision numbers.

    Hello,

    I've followed your newsletters for sometime now. I pretty much understand other econ news and your triggers for the trade, but the NFP numbers. I have a hard time understanding the revision numbers. I understand the forecasted number, the actual numbers and the deviation that you use for the trigger. But how does the revision numbers come into play? How big of a deviation should be sufficient enough to trigger a trade?

    I would appreciate if you could, please, shed some light on the relationships of such numbers. You can use hypothetical figures, instead of real figures, to make a point. For example when the revision number is big enough, but the figure would negate the big enough deviation of the actual number from the forecasted number...or when the revision number actually further confirm of the big deviation in the actual number versus forecasted number. I can't seem to understand the concept. Please advise.
    Thank you.

    Regards,

    Yulius
     
  3. made4life

    made4life Private

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    i dey feel u my guy...nothing do u. i go holla u...
     
  4. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Yulius :

    If the revision to last month's number is of a significant amount, eg half or all of the variation from expected of this month's number, then it will reinforce or offset this month's number.

    Eg this month -540k expected, actual number 48k worse than expected. Because last month was also revised -53k, everything is worse. If last month had been revised +53k, it would offset this month's changes, for a net effect of zero. If last month was revised +200k, it would completely contradict this month's number.

    Hope this helps

    Mark
     
  5. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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  6. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Thanks

    Thanks for the video SP. Gold short seems to be working out. I'm long ey and gy, unfortunately stopped out of my long eu.

    All the best

    Mark
     
  7. y.caesar

    y.caesar Recruit

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    My sincere thanks Mike for your explanation. I just needed a simple english explanation and simple example to understand the concept. Thanks again...you cleared up the my confusion.

    Regards,

    Yulius
     

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