This is Sir Pips.
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
Part 1: HI-res.: 02-12-2008review.swf
Part 2: HI-res.: 02-12-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened on Monday.
On Monday we had two reports coming out.
Norway CPI headline came out close to expectations but the underline inflation number came out high by 0.2 on m/m and by 0.3 on y/y. The market reacted pretty quickly moving price by roughly 400 pips. It came out about 1 minute late and also through smaller news services so by the time bigger news services got the number, the move already happened. At least you know what to expect and know how to trade it if next time the news is on time.
Then we had UK Trade Balance coming out very close to expectations but the PPI was a star here. It came out way better than expected; I normally don't trade the PPI number because it is not in focus but, as someone said in Diamonds room, when ANY smaller indicator has a record deviation, it can move the market well. This is what happened today. If you are interested in more details, watch the video.
Let's now talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI coming out. There will be a lot of speculations about high inflation because the PPI just came out record high today. However, historically there was not any strong relationship between big CPI and big PPI numbers. The headline CPI is expected to come out at 2.3%. Sell trigger will be more safe because if the CPI comes out low, it would be a big surprise so I will widen a buy trigger a little bit. If it comes out at 2.6% or higher (on y/y headline), then I would buy GBP/USD, looking for 40 to 50 pip of a price action in the first hour. If it comes out at 2.1% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 40 to 50 pips as well. If it comes out at 2.2% it may still be enough to sell but it will all depend on pre-release price action. If you want to play safe, stick with 2.1% trigger.
2. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW. I would not worry to much about it; sometimes it moves a little, some other times it is a waste of time. If it is going to deviate extremely high like PPI today, then you would get some price action but such miracles happen once a blue moon.
3. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand PPI but it also will not create big moves unless the deviation is huge. If you have nothing better to do, you can look for crazy deviations.
4. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:01 p.m we will have UK RICS House Price Balance which may be a good one to get a few pips out of it. It is expected to come out at -52%. -50% is kind of low, you will not see -80% or -90%, so they expect record low this month. I would trade it with 5% trigger. If we see -57% or more negative, I would be selling GBP/JPY, looking for 40 to 60 pips in a first hour of the report. If it comes out at -47% or less negative, I would buy GBP/JPY and look for 40 to 60 pips. We may even see 100 pips move.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
Part 1: HI-res.: 02-12-2008review.swf
Part 2: HI-res.: 02-12-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened on Monday.
On Monday we had two reports coming out.
Norway CPI headline came out close to expectations but the underline inflation number came out high by 0.2 on m/m and by 0.3 on y/y. The market reacted pretty quickly moving price by roughly 400 pips. It came out about 1 minute late and also through smaller news services so by the time bigger news services got the number, the move already happened. At least you know what to expect and know how to trade it if next time the news is on time.
Then we had UK Trade Balance coming out very close to expectations but the PPI was a star here. It came out way better than expected; I normally don't trade the PPI number because it is not in focus but, as someone said in Diamonds room, when ANY smaller indicator has a record deviation, it can move the market well. This is what happened today. If you are interested in more details, watch the video.
Let's now talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI coming out. There will be a lot of speculations about high inflation because the PPI just came out record high today. However, historically there was not any strong relationship between big CPI and big PPI numbers. The headline CPI is expected to come out at 2.3%. Sell trigger will be more safe because if the CPI comes out low, it would be a big surprise so I will widen a buy trigger a little bit. If it comes out at 2.6% or higher (on y/y headline), then I would buy GBP/USD, looking for 40 to 50 pip of a price action in the first hour. If it comes out at 2.1% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 40 to 50 pips as well. If it comes out at 2.2% it may still be enough to sell but it will all depend on pre-release price action. If you want to play safe, stick with 2.1% trigger.
2. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW. I would not worry to much about it; sometimes it moves a little, some other times it is a waste of time. If it is going to deviate extremely high like PPI today, then you would get some price action but such miracles happen once a blue moon.
3. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand PPI but it also will not create big moves unless the deviation is huge. If you have nothing better to do, you can look for crazy deviations.
4. Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:01 p.m we will have UK RICS House Price Balance which may be a good one to get a few pips out of it. It is expected to come out at -52%. -50% is kind of low, you will not see -80% or -90%, so they expect record low this month. I would trade it with 5% trigger. If we see -57% or more negative, I would be selling GBP/JPY, looking for 40 to 60 pips in a first hour of the report. If it comes out at -47% or less negative, I would buy GBP/JPY and look for 40 to 60 pips. We may even see 100 pips move.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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