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Forex Trading Signal 02/20/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Feb 20, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    02-20-2009.swf

    Yesterday, I noticed EUR/NOK made a HUGE move on Norwegian quarterly GDP, so I might be on the lookout to trade that out of Sweden and Norway next time around. US PPI came in 0.3% higher than expected pretty much across the board, and after some wiggling lower, the EUR/USD did make a nice upmove as predicted on a postive deviation. The Philly Fed came in abysmally low and we saw nice, steady declines for 75-130 pips in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/JPY; however, USD/JPY saw only muted reaction. Equity markets continue their protracted weakness as I've been calling for for quite some time. The DJIA just closed at 7465 below it's November 21st intraday lows. The S&P 500 should be next. I'm expecting a further breakdown in the S&P down into the 600's, so I'm continuing to hold my shorts/put options and maintain a downwards bias on EUR/USD, but I'm mindful that the EUR/USD down move is maturing and I may want to look for an exit on the position trade short at some point in the next week or so. I'll let you know in the videos. For tomorrow:

    0430 UK Retail Sales (-0.1% expected) - This report has come out higher than expectations for awhile, and even in a downtrend has been able to manage a nice little rally. I expect some weakness heading into the number and possibly throughout the early european session.
    If it comes out at +0.6% or higher, look to go long on GBP/USD looking for 40+ pips
    If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, look to short GBP/USD for a quick 30-40 pips, or trade the volatility and look for a reversal opportunity to go long for a scalp or swing reversal especially if it bottoms at key support and the USD is starting to weaken on other pairs.

    0700 CAD Core CPI m/m (-0.1 expected) - A bit of a goldilocks plan here.
    If it comes out at 0.0 or 0.1, look to short USD/CAD for 30-40 pips but expect some volatility
    If it comes out at -0.3 or worse, or it comes out at +0.3 or higher, look to go long on USD/CAD looking for 30-40 pips or more

    0830 US Core CPI m/m (+0.1% expected) - Modified golilocks plan here with a hands off approach if it comes out very high.
    If it comes out at 0.1% or 0.2%, look to go long EUR/USD but it's initial 1 minute move may be a bit lower, so look to take advantage of that if possible.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, look to get short on EUR/USD, but it's initial 1 min move may be a bit higher, so look to take advantage of that if possible

    On all of these numbers, be careful of conflicts as described in the video.

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