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Forex Trading Signal 03/06/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Mar 6, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi there

    Here is the video:
    03-06-2009.swf

    The two interest rate decisions did not have any major surprises on the numbers themselves, so there was no trade there. Trichet's speech had some negative developments due to their drastically downgraded inflation and growth forecasts, but late in the speech Trichet implied that they were going to cut rates further in the next meeting or two, so that helped the Euro eventually find some support and rally back higher.

    For tomorrow, there's just one trade worth our attention:

    0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-650K expected) - There is very often a lot of weakness in stocks and carry trades in the days leading up to a potentially bad NFP like this one, then when the numbers actually come live, there's a lot of short covering that creates upside even though the numbers aren't great. We seem to be setting up for similar action this time around as well.
    If it comes out at -750K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off 40-50 pips quickly and be good for a quick short.
    If it comes out at -523K or higher, USD/JPY and/or EUR/JPY should be a great buy and could see 60-100 pips or more higher as long as there isn't a big downwards revision to last month's numbers.
    Riskier potential opportunity - If it comes out somewhat close to expectations, even if a bit lower than the consensus, chances are we will see a relief rally as people cover their shorts, so consider buying USD/JPY or EUR/JPY even if there isn't a big upwards surprise.

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  2. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Thanks SP. Stopped out of my eu short from a couple of weeks ago at BE at 1.2688, still in at Oanda with sl at BE at 1.2760 - Oanda's daily charts start in the middle of the asian session, and so give me different triggers than a normal daily chart - still wondering what to do about that. The euro mystery continues: I'm planning to either go short at a daily reversal in the 2900 region off the two upper channel lines, or long at a higher low - only trading daily charts for the moment, which leaves my days free ! I watch your videos religiously - thanks again.
     
  3. ChrisEccles

    ChrisEccles Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Mark

    What makes trading hair-raising, this side of the Atlantic,
    if you're a devotee of Cable or EUR/GBP, is the tendency for the
    Brit politicians (particularly Brown and Darling) to appear in front
    of the media with ad hoc policy changes and comments at all
    hours of the day and night, with scant regard for where a chap might
    have placed his stops ...

    :unhappy:

    -
    Chris
     

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