Forex Trading Signal 03/13/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi my dear Trader :)

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

HI-res.: 03-13-2008.swf

Let's first talk what happened earlier today.

At 5:30 a.m. we had UK Trade Balance coming out. It came out almost exactly as expected so it was a no trade.

Then at 4:45 p.m. we had New Zealand Retail Sales coming out. It came out a little higher but not high enough to enter us into a trade. We got a little appreciation on NZD today, signaling that the core number might be a little more in focus now.

At 8:30 p.m. we had Australian Employment Change. The Employment Change deviated by +21.7 K, giving us a nice buy signal. Also, the unemployment rate deviated by -0.2%, helping us this time. The price moved up by 45 pips in a matter of seconds, and then retraced by about 50%, giving us a good place to enter long on AUD/USD.

Let's now talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core Retail Sales coming out, also known as Retail Sales X Autos. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher then I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 40 to 45 pips of a price action. On the sell side I would be looking for a little wider trigger so if it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 pips of a price action. Keep in mind that levels 100.00, 100.50 and 101.00 can bounce the price well so be careful around that places. It is a good place to take a profit and a bad place to enter a new trade hoping that they will break easily. It just may take some time to break them through. Keep in mind we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming at the same time, and it is more and more in focus right now. It is expected it will come out at 357K, and I think a 20K trigger would be significant enough to help or screw up the retail sales trade. If it comes out at 377K or higher, it will be weakening the U.S. dollar; if it comes out at 337K or lower, that would be positive for the USD/JPY. Avoid conflicts here.

2a. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 9:00 we will have Interest Rate decisions coming out of Switzerland. It is expected they will keep the rates at 2.75%. The best pair to look at is USD/CHF. If they raise the rates to 3.00%, it would be a sell signal on USD/CHF and look for 50 pips or more of a price action in the first hour of the report. If they cut the rates to 2.50%, it would be a buy signal on USD/CHF, good for 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2b. Thursday, March 13th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
Also at 9:00 we will have Norwegian Interest Rate decision coming out. It is more likely to surprise the market, and it is expected they will keep the rates unchanged at 5.25%. There are a few economists calling for a rate hike, and last Monday the CPI underline came out higher than expected by 0.3% so this might be a valid opinion. Moreover, last week Sweden also did a surprise rate hike so Norway can follow soon. If they hike the rates to 5.50%, it would be a sell signal on EUR/NOK or USD/NOK, and look for 600 pips move. If they hold the rates at the same level, it might be worth a speculative buy on EUR/NOK or USD/NOK (especially with a strength of the Euro) and try to grab 100 to 200 pips and get out quickly. However, be extra careful with that. If they cut the rates, which would be a huge surprise, it would be a great buy signal on EUR/NOK or USD/NOK, and I would look for 600 to 700 pips move.

That's all for tomorrow.

If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot

The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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