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Forex Trading Signal 03/14/08

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Mar 14, 2008.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi my dear Trader :)

    If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.



    HI-res.: 03-14-2008.swf

    Let's first review what happened earlier today.

    The U.S. Retail Sales came out quite weak but not weak enough to trade that. That was a no trade. If you want to know details why Yen was acting like crazy, please watch the video. To make the long story short, I am glad the trigger was not hit on this.

    At 9:00 a.m. we had two interest rate statements, both came out as expected. I said you might try to enter long on EUR/NOK; it worked for a very short time but then the Norwegian bank started coming out with a lot of bullish commentary, sending EUR/NOK "south". I lost some money on that but nothing significant.

    Other than that, it was a quite boring day.

    Let's talk about Friday.

    We will have CPI out of Euro zone but this one does not move the market at all so don't be fooled. The other Euro zone CPI that actually moves the market is released near a beginning of each month (CPI Estimate).

    1. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
    At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI coming out. I will be trading Core CPI m/m, expected to come in at 0.2% The consensus is pretty strong; however, maybe about 20% of economists expect the CPI to come higher at 0.3%. The big signal would be if it comes out lower. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be weakening for the U.S. dollar, and you can take advantage of that by buying EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips or more of a price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.3% (preferably 0.4%) or higher, it would be a sell signal on EUR/USD or GPB/USD and you can expect 40 pips move as well. I would be more comfortable on lower trigger although I believe the upper trigger should work OK too.

    2. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
    At 10:00 a.m. we will have Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming out. This one might be worth trading if we get a big deviation here. It is expected to come out at 69.25. If it comes out at 75 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at 64 or lower, I would short USD/JPY. I would expect 20 to 25 pips of a price action here so it might be worthy to take a shoot on it.

    That's all for tomorrow.

    If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

    Thank you and good luck with your trades.

    To Our Success!
    -Sir Pipsalot



    The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
    For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
     
    #1 Crazy Cat, Mar 14, 2008
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. emadanton

    emadanton Recruit

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    Hi everybody , thanks a lot for everything

    I have a simple question i'd like to ask ,
    What is the difference between CPI and Core CPI ???
    and which is more important and why?

    thanks a lot guys . Happy trading .
     
  3. superstar

    superstar Private

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    Sir Pipsalot

    "The big signal would be if it comes out lower. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be weakening for the U.S. dollar, and you can take advantage of that by buying EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips or more of a price action in the first hour of the report."

    I have a doubt here. It came out @0.0%. So it means that it is weakening for the $ and a buy signal on EU and GU. But why did we see both EU and GU go down. And we also saw UJ going up. Could you please explain why this happened? Why did the dollar strengthen? Is the reverse price action got something to do with this number's connection with the interest rate statement? If yes could u kindly tell us the relation?

    It would be wonderful if you could answer my questions. Thank you.
     
  4. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Core CPI excludes food and energy prices, since those tend to be volatile. Thus, the Core CPI is considered (by many - your mileage may vary) to be a more reliable (and tradeable) indicator.

    There are some other indicators like this. Retail Sales has Core Retails Sales (excludes cars - often called Retail Sales x-auto) since car sales are highly variable from month to month.
     
  5. emadanton

    emadanton Recruit

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    Thanks a lot Pharoh for your explanation.
    I really appreciate it man.

    Good Luck
     
  6. damien17

    damien17 Recruit

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    So any clue what happened with the CPI trade? It spiked to the correct direction for few pips and then it reversed immediately... check USDJPY, it acted like the CPI come positive!!!!
     
  7. superstar

    superstar Private

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    I am totally confused too. And waiting for a reply from Sir Pipsalot.
     
  8. emadanton

    emadanton Recruit

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    me too guys i found it really strange !!!

    waiting for a reply from Sir Pipsalot
     
  9. goodfella

    goodfella Recruit

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    I quickly realised this was a bad trade and got out for a small loss. CPI being lower means the Fed will have less reasons to aggressively cut rates, because it means they have a better grip on the possibility of stagflation developing. This is why it was strengthening for the dollar. I think sir pipsalot got it the wrong way round..but we all make mistakes right. I must admit i was ready to make a good profit here, because I'd messed up a few others by getting in late, but theres more news coming out today.
     
  10. Nfaifa

    Nfaifa Recruit

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    Was there no signal today? I didn't see any advance warning of this in the e-mail for Friday.
     

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