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Forex Trading Signal 03/18/08

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Mar 18, 2008.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

    Sep 30, 2007
    Likes Received:
    Hi my dear Trader :)

    If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

    1) HI-res.: 03-18-2008a.swf

    2) HI-res.: 03-18-2008b.swf

    I am sorry there was no signal yesterday; I did not feel well last weekend so I just took a day off. What a day was that that's another story - USD/JPY lost about 5% of its value in just a day so that was a big trading opportunity for sure.

    Going back to Friday, we had a big signal on U.S. CPI but the market reacted very strangely, and it was very tough to trade. I personally lost on the initial price action, and then made some back on other trades following that losing one. Dollar strengthening on lower CPI did not make any sense but the market is tough right now and I guess anything can happen.

    There is a lot of interesting stuff on the video which would make this signal extremely long, and I know from a fact that people want to see these signals short and straight to the point, so if you are interested in more details, please watch both videos.

    Let's talk about tomorrow.

    1. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
    At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.5%. We should trade 0.2 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 2.7%, that would be strengthening GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, it would be weakening the GBP/USD. If 0.2 trigger is hit, I would expect about 40 to 50 pips move either direction. The core CPI must deviate the same direction. If it conflicts (mostly because of oil prices), I would recommend to stay out or exiting your spike trade very quickly. The initial move should happen on the headline number but in order to keep it moving the same direction, the Core CPI cannot conflict.

    2. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
    At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.3%. I will use 0.2 trigger as well. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/CAD, and I will be looking for 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be a good buying opportunity on USD/CAD, good for 40 pips in the first hour as well. Similarly to UK CPI, you want to avoid any conflicts between the core and the headline number. In order to stay in a trade, the two numbers at least cannot conflict.

    3. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
    At 8:30 a.m. we will have Housing Starts and PPI. The PPI is not a big deal, I would not worry about it. The real story is if the housing number comes out high, and by high I mean high. If it is a case, then I think it would be a good buying USD/JPY opportunity. I think a good trigger would be if it comes out at 1080 K or higher. If this trigger is hit, I would expect 35 to 40 pips move in the first hour of the report.

    4. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
    The big, highly anticipated event is the FOMC Interest Rate decision. The original consensus was they were going to cut the rates by 75 bp (0.75%) from 3.00% down to 2.25%, and then they expected a cut of 50 bp, and now some of people expect them to cut by 1% (100 bp) or more. The FED fund futures increased probabilities, and now they are calling for 100% chance of 1% cut or more, and 22% chance of 1.25% cut, drastically lowering their interest rates expectations. Economists are uncertain as well, and they are looking for 0.75% cut in average, with some of them looking for 0.50% cut and some others looking for full 1% cut. I think the best way to handle it is to set expectations to 0.75% cut as I believe if they cut by 75 bp it will be very hard to tell if it is going to be supportive or disappointment for the market so most likely I will stay out of the market. I think it is tradable if they cut the rates by "only" 0.5% (50 bp) or if they cut by 1% (100 bp) or more. I think the simplest way is to trade AUD/USD (yeah, strange) as this pair worked very well in the past. If they cut the rates by 50 bp or less, that would be a sell signal on AUD/USD, look for 50 pips move in the first 15 minutes of the report. If they cut the rates by 1% or more, I would go long (buy) on AUD/USD, looking for 50 pips or more in the first 15 minutes of the report. Alternative way to trade it would be EUR/USD or EUR/JPY *BUT PLEASE WATCH the video* for more details. Also, pay attention to any possible "tape bombs" that may happen.

    AGAIN, I wanted to keep this email short for fast reading, and it is meant for less advanced traders but there is A LOT OF interesting stuff and tips for a little more advanced traders so if you are one of them I encourage you to watch both videos.

    That's all for tomorrow.

    If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

    Thank you and good luck with your trades.

    To Our Success!
    -Sir Pipsalot

    The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
    For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
    #1 Crazy Cat, Mar 18, 2008
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. emadanton

    emadanton Recruit

    Nov 22, 2007
    Likes Received:
    thanks a lot Sir Pipsalot and Crazy Cat for everything

    i have a question i'd like to ask
    You mentioned in the video that there might be some important commentary during the statment
    So, where can we get a live feed of that statment?
    (a streaming site maybe!)

    thanks again
  3. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

    Oct 3, 2007
    Likes Received:
    Rate cut countdown

    Oooooooohhhh... 25 or so minutes to go. Time to bring in the stops on my technical trades and hope things don't get too wild.

    I'm not sure where to see the commentary live, but I'll bet that CNBC would at least have the highlights.
  4. emadanton

    emadanton Recruit

    Nov 22, 2007
    Likes Received:
    ouch ! only .75% cut !!!!!

    thanks Pharaoh

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