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Forex Trading Signal 03/19/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Mar 19, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi there :)

    Here is the video:
    03-19-2009.swf

    Well, we had a huge day of price action and some potentially game-changing developments. First off, the BoE minutes were largely as expected with no real surprises, but the Claimant Count Change had a dramatically bad reading in over 50K higher than expected and we saw a very sharp selloff in GBP/USD. US CPI data came in slightly high and we did see that spark some risk appetite as expected with a 40-50 pip upmove in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. Finally, the big deal was the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement where the Fed announced new purchases of 1 Trillion dollars of agency debt, asset backed securities and treasuries. This will extend the Fed's balance sheet from 2 Trillion to 3 Trillion dollars which is huge. Our strategy of buying along with bullish news at the first 5 minute bar close would have worked eerily well even with the huge initial rally. A lot of our biases are being potentially threatened or shot down here, so definitely watch the video for more information on the major trends we've been following. For tomorrow's news:

    0700 CAD core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - The CAD can really go either way on any deviation and it's not very high probability to predict a direction based solely on the deviation. I recommend simply responding to the price action with a bit of a blind eye to the numbers and looking to scalp 10-20 pips chasing the initial reaction or getting in on a retracement.

    1000 US Philly Fed Index (-40 expected) - This indicator has done quite well on the EUR/USD lately, but with the overriding focus on the Fed's new expanded actions, look out for underlying tides to either chop this one short, or extend it further than expected based on the setup.
    If it comes out at -32 or higher, EUR/USD should be good for 30-40 pips or more of upside
    If it comes out at -50 or lower, EUR/USD should be good for 30-40 pips of downside.

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