Hi my dear Trader 
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
Wednesday - review:
HI-res.: 03-27-2008 - review
Thursday - preview:
HI-res.: 03-27-2008 - preview
Friday - preview:
HI-res.: 03-28-2008 - preview
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
First, let's talk about German IFO Business Climate Index. It came out high but not high enough to hit my trigger. I personally did not trade it. The report almost hit the trigger and also bullish comments were following it, causing EUR/USD going up from 1.5596 to 1.5635 in just first 5 minutes. Eventually it went up to to 1.5756 or so. It was a move of about 150 pips over a few hours so I will definitely pay more attention to this report next month. Sometimes I prefer to miss a good trade if I feel it would be risky to trade as I prefer have a no trade than loss.
Then we had U.S. Durable Goods X Transportation coming out. It came out much lower than expected, hitting a sell signal on USD/JPY. The price moved by only about 30 pips before it pulled back and traded in a range. There was some opportunity to take a profit but not a lot. I personally took a small loss on it.
The U.S. New Home Sales deviated by +12K so it did not hit my trigger. The prior number was revised as well, and also the median price for new houses jumped up from 220K to 244K. Raising prices, a positive deviation on regular number and positive revision all together moved up USD/JPY by about 20 pips, and then it went even higher by about 30 pips total. Nevertheless, it would be quite risky to trade.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP. Generally I would trade 0.3 or even 0.2 deviation on it; however, there is a lot uncertainty around this number. The range of expectations is wider than usually. I would like to play a little safer here. If the GDP Annualized comes out at 1% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.2% or lower, I think it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would look for 40 to 45 pips of a price action. The only thing what you should pay attention on is the Initial Jobless Claims. It is expected to come out at 370K; if it deviates by 15K or more, it may cause moves. If it comes out at 385K or higher, it would give some selling pressure on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 355 K or lower, it would add some buying pressure on USD/JPY. It would be good if that would agree with the GDP indicator should that deviate enough to give us a trade. If they conflict, I would look for a fast exit if you are in a speculative trade.
2. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 5:45 p.m. we will have GDP q/q out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. I would use 0.2 trigger on this but if you want to be a bit more safe, you can use 0.3 trigger here. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. If my 0.2 trigger is hit, I would expect 40 pips of a price action.
3. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food coming out. There are a lot of other CPIs coming out but the most important is Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, I would buy on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would sell on USD/JPY. 20 minutes later we will also get retail sales numbers but I would not worry too much about them.
Let's talk about Friday. Crazy Cat is having a spring break so he wanted to process both days same day. Keep in mind that expectations might slightly change at the time goes.
4. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (3:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 3:00 a.m we will have UK Nationwide House Prices y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.0%. This indicator has been on a steady slide ever since last summer from over 11% last summer to expected 2% this month. The monthly number is expected to come out at -0.3%. I will trade the monthly number with 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a good buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would expect a move of about 30 pips and 45-50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, then I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect about the same targets here.
5. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP coming out. This is a final revision but the released number is not annualized. Everyone is expecting it to come out at 0.6%. Any deviation should be a good trading opportunity. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, that would be a buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would look for about 40-50 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 0.5% or lower, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and look for about 40-50 pips of a price action.
6. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a bunch of U.S. indicators coming out. I think the way how to trade is to look at each indicator and see if any of them surprises. The Core PCE m/m is expected to come out at 0.1% and if it deviates by 0.2, it would be a big surprise so if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, that would be a good selling opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips of a price action. If it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, it would be a good buying opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, good for 40 pips or more as well. The Personal Spending is expected to come out at 0.1% and the Personal Income is expected to come out at 0.3%. I think 0.5 to 0.6 on either one would be a nice, tradable deviation. If it comes out high, it should cause some appreciation to the U.S. dollar, assuming the Core PCE would come out as expected. Therefore, assuming that Core PCE is not conflicting, if the Personal Spending comes out at 0.7% and/or the Personal Income comes out at 0.8%, I think it would be a decent buying opportunity on USD/JPY, looking for about 30 pips; if the Personal Income comes out at -0.2% or Personal Spending comes out at -0.5% or lower, that would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY, and we should see about 30 pips of a price action as well.
7. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment (final revision) - just ignore it as the final revision is not tradable at all.
That's all for Thursday and Friday. As always, watch the video for additional details - there is a lot of extra stuff there.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
Wednesday - review:
HI-res.: 03-27-2008 - review
Thursday - preview:
HI-res.: 03-27-2008 - preview
Friday - preview:
HI-res.: 03-28-2008 - preview
Let's first review what happened earlier today.
First, let's talk about German IFO Business Climate Index. It came out high but not high enough to hit my trigger. I personally did not trade it. The report almost hit the trigger and also bullish comments were following it, causing EUR/USD going up from 1.5596 to 1.5635 in just first 5 minutes. Eventually it went up to to 1.5756 or so. It was a move of about 150 pips over a few hours so I will definitely pay more attention to this report next month. Sometimes I prefer to miss a good trade if I feel it would be risky to trade as I prefer have a no trade than loss.
Then we had U.S. Durable Goods X Transportation coming out. It came out much lower than expected, hitting a sell signal on USD/JPY. The price moved by only about 30 pips before it pulled back and traded in a range. There was some opportunity to take a profit but not a lot. I personally took a small loss on it.
The U.S. New Home Sales deviated by +12K so it did not hit my trigger. The prior number was revised as well, and also the median price for new houses jumped up from 220K to 244K. Raising prices, a positive deviation on regular number and positive revision all together moved up USD/JPY by about 20 pips, and then it went even higher by about 30 pips total. Nevertheless, it would be quite risky to trade.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP. Generally I would trade 0.3 or even 0.2 deviation on it; however, there is a lot uncertainty around this number. The range of expectations is wider than usually. I would like to play a little safer here. If the GDP Annualized comes out at 1% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.2% or lower, I think it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would look for 40 to 45 pips of a price action. The only thing what you should pay attention on is the Initial Jobless Claims. It is expected to come out at 370K; if it deviates by 15K or more, it may cause moves. If it comes out at 385K or higher, it would give some selling pressure on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 355 K or lower, it would add some buying pressure on USD/JPY. It would be good if that would agree with the GDP indicator should that deviate enough to give us a trade. If they conflict, I would look for a fast exit if you are in a speculative trade.
2. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 5:45 p.m. we will have GDP q/q out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. I would use 0.2 trigger on this but if you want to be a bit more safe, you can use 0.3 trigger here. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. If my 0.2 trigger is hit, I would expect 40 pips of a price action.
3. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food coming out. There are a lot of other CPIs coming out but the most important is Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, I would buy on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would sell on USD/JPY. 20 minutes later we will also get retail sales numbers but I would not worry too much about them.
Let's talk about Friday. Crazy Cat is having a spring break so he wanted to process both days same day. Keep in mind that expectations might slightly change at the time goes.
4. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (3:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 3:00 a.m we will have UK Nationwide House Prices y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.0%. This indicator has been on a steady slide ever since last summer from over 11% last summer to expected 2% this month. The monthly number is expected to come out at -0.3%. I will trade the monthly number with 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a good buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would expect a move of about 30 pips and 45-50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, then I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect about the same targets here.
5. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP coming out. This is a final revision but the released number is not annualized. Everyone is expecting it to come out at 0.6%. Any deviation should be a good trading opportunity. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, that would be a buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would look for about 40-50 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 0.5% or lower, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and look for about 40-50 pips of a price action.
6. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a bunch of U.S. indicators coming out. I think the way how to trade is to look at each indicator and see if any of them surprises. The Core PCE m/m is expected to come out at 0.1% and if it deviates by 0.2, it would be a big surprise so if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, that would be a good selling opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips of a price action. If it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, it would be a good buying opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, good for 40 pips or more as well. The Personal Spending is expected to come out at 0.1% and the Personal Income is expected to come out at 0.3%. I think 0.5 to 0.6 on either one would be a nice, tradable deviation. If it comes out high, it should cause some appreciation to the U.S. dollar, assuming the Core PCE would come out as expected. Therefore, assuming that Core PCE is not conflicting, if the Personal Spending comes out at 0.7% and/or the Personal Income comes out at 0.8%, I think it would be a decent buying opportunity on USD/JPY, looking for about 30 pips; if the Personal Income comes out at -0.2% or Personal Spending comes out at -0.5% or lower, that would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY, and we should see about 30 pips of a price action as well.
7. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment (final revision) - just ignore it as the final revision is not tradable at all.
That's all for Thursday and Friday. As always, watch the video for additional details - there is a lot of extra stuff there.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
