Hey folks,
Here is the video:
04-08-2009.swf
We've seen long overdue selloffs in US equities and the EUR/USD bring a bit more clarity to the medium term outlook. Definitely watch tonight's video for a more in depth discussion on each market and the news. To summarize, after that key break of 1.3320 I mentioned in yesterday's signal, the EUR/USD has been in intermittent freefall and now is likely to gun for it's 61.8% retracement at around 1.2950, so that's my target for now. The EUR/USD tried to reverse it's downtrend into an uptrend but so far has failed, so my bias is still short to neutral. A big break of 1.3000 and 1.2950 will help make the case for sustained EUR/USD weakness, but for now, I'd see those levels as support worth buying. The EUR/GBP position trade sell I recommended on Monday is up 100 pips so far, and should selloff at least 300-400 more pips over the coming weeks, and maybe a whole lot more depending on how news on Eastern Europe develops.
Stocks seem to be consolidating into an expanded flat which may draw prices down into the mid to high 700's on the S&P similar to what we've been looking for the past 2 weeks. Even the bears out there are seeing this as a buy on dips opportunity developing, so any further weakness in stocks, especially below their March 31st lows should be seen as a good medium term buying opportunity. Tomorrow also we're getting a vote from the SEC during the NY session on reinstating or retooling the old uptick rule on short selling. If they re-enact it (very likely) it should be a nice risk appetite positive that should help stocks and the EUR/USD rally. There are competing pressures out there though, and a significant break of 800 on the S&P should signal further selloffs to and below 775 in the coming days before that next big rally.
Gold is wiggling around but has broken support significantly enough to seriously confirm further downside. Any good rallies should be seen as shorting opportunities for the medium term. For the news tomorrow:
1400 US FOMC Minutes - This one will be quite interesting with insight into the debate over the massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. If there was a lot of dissention or this move was more of a one time deal, that would be EUR/USD bearish. If there was strong agreement and further steps like this are likely in the near future, or if there is a lot of optimism expressed in some of the improving monthly indicators, that would be EUR/USD and GBP/USD bullish. One side note I forgot to mention in the video is that oftentimes the AUD/USD will tend to outperform the European majors on FOMC news, so consider trading that pair as an alternative.
2130 AU Employment (-25K expected) - Look out for a conflict on the Unemployment Rate as that may cause a whipsaw (it's expected at -5.4%)
If it comes out at 0 or higher, AUD/USD should rise by 40-50+ pips
If it comes out at -50K or lower, AUD/USD should fall by 40-50+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Here is the video:
04-08-2009.swf
We've seen long overdue selloffs in US equities and the EUR/USD bring a bit more clarity to the medium term outlook. Definitely watch tonight's video for a more in depth discussion on each market and the news. To summarize, after that key break of 1.3320 I mentioned in yesterday's signal, the EUR/USD has been in intermittent freefall and now is likely to gun for it's 61.8% retracement at around 1.2950, so that's my target for now. The EUR/USD tried to reverse it's downtrend into an uptrend but so far has failed, so my bias is still short to neutral. A big break of 1.3000 and 1.2950 will help make the case for sustained EUR/USD weakness, but for now, I'd see those levels as support worth buying. The EUR/GBP position trade sell I recommended on Monday is up 100 pips so far, and should selloff at least 300-400 more pips over the coming weeks, and maybe a whole lot more depending on how news on Eastern Europe develops.
Stocks seem to be consolidating into an expanded flat which may draw prices down into the mid to high 700's on the S&P similar to what we've been looking for the past 2 weeks. Even the bears out there are seeing this as a buy on dips opportunity developing, so any further weakness in stocks, especially below their March 31st lows should be seen as a good medium term buying opportunity. Tomorrow also we're getting a vote from the SEC during the NY session on reinstating or retooling the old uptick rule on short selling. If they re-enact it (very likely) it should be a nice risk appetite positive that should help stocks and the EUR/USD rally. There are competing pressures out there though, and a significant break of 800 on the S&P should signal further selloffs to and below 775 in the coming days before that next big rally.
Gold is wiggling around but has broken support significantly enough to seriously confirm further downside. Any good rallies should be seen as shorting opportunities for the medium term. For the news tomorrow:
1400 US FOMC Minutes - This one will be quite interesting with insight into the debate over the massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. If there was a lot of dissention or this move was more of a one time deal, that would be EUR/USD bearish. If there was strong agreement and further steps like this are likely in the near future, or if there is a lot of optimism expressed in some of the improving monthly indicators, that would be EUR/USD and GBP/USD bullish. One side note I forgot to mention in the video is that oftentimes the AUD/USD will tend to outperform the European majors on FOMC news, so consider trading that pair as an alternative.
2130 AU Employment (-25K expected) - Look out for a conflict on the Unemployment Rate as that may cause a whipsaw (it's expected at -5.4%)
If it comes out at 0 or higher, AUD/USD should rise by 40-50+ pips
If it comes out at -50K or lower, AUD/USD should fall by 40-50+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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