Hi my dear Trader 
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
HI-res. 1: 4-14-2008review.swf
HI-res. 2: 4-14-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
On Thursday we had Norway CPI. The headline came out low but the underlined inflation was as expected so it was a no trade which was a good thing.
UK did cut the rates as expected so no trade here.
The interest rates did not change in Euro Zone so it was a no trade as well.
At 8:30 we had Canadian trade balance with a significant deviation of +1.5 B. The U.S. trade balance, however, came out much lower as it deviated by about -5 B from the expectation. We also had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out much lower than expected. Lower U.S. trade balance is bad for the U.S. dollar but lower Jobless Claims is actually good for the U.S. dollar so it was a big conflict here. Based on the Jobless Claims we were looking for a long trade on USD/JPY but because of the trade balance, USD/JPY spiked down a little although within next 10 minutes it actually not only retraced but USD/JPY was climbing higher and higher. People who entered on the spike and put a lot of faith on the Jobless Claims were able to exit at BE or even make a decent profit. Those who entered on the spike but did not want to risk a lot, usually took a few pips loss. Because of such big conflict, it was hard to make a call on the "afterspike" trade.
We also had Trichet speaking and his speech was quite bullish.
For G-7 review, watch the video.
Let's talk about Monday.
1. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI coming out. The underline inflation m/m is expected to come out at 0.5% and the underline inflation y/y is expected to come out at 2.1%. If the underline inflation y/y comes out at 2.3% or higher, that would be a good sell signal on EUR/SEK, and I would expect it to move by around 400 pips. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy EUR/SEK and also look for around 400 pips move. It would be very good if there was some help from headline m/m and y/y number but it is not completely necessary - just make sure they are not conflicting.
2. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK PPI but it is a very weird report. I would just skip that one.
3. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (also known as "Core"). It is probably the most important indicator in this week. I will try to trade it on USD/JPY. It is expected to come out at 0.1%, and I would trade it with 0.5 deviation. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, it would be a good sell signal on USD/JPY. If my trigger is hit, I would expect USD/JPY moving by around 40 pips. Also, try to avoid conflicts with the headline number here.
4. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have CPI q/q out of New Zealand. We have this indicator only once every three months. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. This indicator is not that hot and chances are good if we hit 0.2 to 0.3 trigger, NZD/USD may move 25 to 30 pips and consolidate then. However, this time we have a bit better time of a release - it is not near NY close like it used to be so NZD/USD can get more attention. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. In either case I would look for 30 pips move.
5. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:01 p.m we will have UK RICS House Price Balance coming out. I would skip that one but if it comes out very positive like -50 or better (less negative), it may move GBP/USD or GBB/JPY quite well but again, I would not worry too much about this report.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you want to make some money on nice spikes, try Forex Secret News Weapon - they also offer 21 days money back policy so try it and see if you can grow your account that way. A nice thing about the SNW is it has not only the autoclick feature but it will also allow you to see other reports so you will immediately know if there are any conflicts, and therefore you would know if you should stay in your trade or get out, or maybe even reenter on the retracement. With a fast market moving I cannot imagine checking on-line forex calendars which are really slow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.
HI-res. 1: 4-14-2008review.swf
HI-res. 2: 4-14-2008preview.swf
Let's first review what happened on Thursday.
On Thursday we had Norway CPI. The headline came out low but the underlined inflation was as expected so it was a no trade which was a good thing.
UK did cut the rates as expected so no trade here.
The interest rates did not change in Euro Zone so it was a no trade as well.
At 8:30 we had Canadian trade balance with a significant deviation of +1.5 B. The U.S. trade balance, however, came out much lower as it deviated by about -5 B from the expectation. We also had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out much lower than expected. Lower U.S. trade balance is bad for the U.S. dollar but lower Jobless Claims is actually good for the U.S. dollar so it was a big conflict here. Based on the Jobless Claims we were looking for a long trade on USD/JPY but because of the trade balance, USD/JPY spiked down a little although within next 10 minutes it actually not only retraced but USD/JPY was climbing higher and higher. People who entered on the spike and put a lot of faith on the Jobless Claims were able to exit at BE or even make a decent profit. Those who entered on the spike but did not want to risk a lot, usually took a few pips loss. Because of such big conflict, it was hard to make a call on the "afterspike" trade.
We also had Trichet speaking and his speech was quite bullish.
For G-7 review, watch the video.
Let's talk about Monday.
1. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI coming out. The underline inflation m/m is expected to come out at 0.5% and the underline inflation y/y is expected to come out at 2.1%. If the underline inflation y/y comes out at 2.3% or higher, that would be a good sell signal on EUR/SEK, and I would expect it to move by around 400 pips. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy EUR/SEK and also look for around 400 pips move. It would be very good if there was some help from headline m/m and y/y number but it is not completely necessary - just make sure they are not conflicting.
2. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK PPI but it is a very weird report. I would just skip that one.
3. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (also known as "Core"). It is probably the most important indicator in this week. I will try to trade it on USD/JPY. It is expected to come out at 0.1%, and I would trade it with 0.5 deviation. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, it would be a good sell signal on USD/JPY. If my trigger is hit, I would expect USD/JPY moving by around 40 pips. Also, try to avoid conflicts with the headline number here.
4. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have CPI q/q out of New Zealand. We have this indicator only once every three months. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. This indicator is not that hot and chances are good if we hit 0.2 to 0.3 trigger, NZD/USD may move 25 to 30 pips and consolidate then. However, this time we have a bit better time of a release - it is not near NY close like it used to be so NZD/USD can get more attention. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. In either case I would look for 30 pips move.
5. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:01 p.m we will have UK RICS House Price Balance coming out. I would skip that one but if it comes out very positive like -50 or better (less negative), it may move GBP/USD or GBB/JPY quite well but again, I would not worry too much about this report.
That's all for tomorrow.
If you want to make some money on nice spikes, try Forex Secret News Weapon - they also offer 21 days money back policy so try it and see if you can grow your account that way. A nice thing about the SNW is it has not only the autoclick feature but it will also allow you to see other reports so you will immediately know if there are any conflicts, and therefore you would know if you should stay in your trade or get out, or maybe even reenter on the retracement. With a fast market moving I cannot imagine checking on-line forex calendars which are really slow.
If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.
To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot
The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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