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Forex Trading Signal 04/15/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Apr 15, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    04-15-2009.swf

    Tuesday's lower Retail Sales and PPI data set the tone for the day with nice declines in stocks, and risk aversion currency moves lower on many pairs like EUR/JPY. The news trade itself was good for 100 pips lower in under 30 minutes which was a solid trade. Right now the picture on EUR/USD still looks pretty cloudy, so I'm going to refrain from giving much advice there until it commits enough to take out a more major low or high. Gold is much clearer though as and pullback into the 900-910 range is great for a short. Watch the video for a more specific look on that and the rest of what I bring up here. Stocks look like they may have formed a top, and greater confirmation will come on a solid break of 825 on the actively traded futures contract (June 2009). A more material decline is brewing though and when it comes, it should draw prices into the 750-800 range which would be a great place to start building a bullish posiiton to hold on for future bullish price action into the summer. For Wednesday's news:

    0830 US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - How this report will exactly affect EUR/USD and USD/JPY immediately on the release varies based on the technical pressure leading into the report, but the more medium term pressure should be bullish for one or both on higher CPI, and bearish for one or both on lower CPI. Watch the video for a closer look, but I'm expecting some choppiness with a 35-50 pip move developing over 20-30 minutes.
    If it comes out at 0.2% or higher, EUR/JPY should move higher by 35-50 pips.
    If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, EUR/JPY should move lower by 35-50 pips.
    Look for confirmation from the headline and y/y numbers coming out in the same direction to get in.
    Also pay some attention to the Empire Manufacturing Survey expected at -35. 10 higher than expected should add some buying pressure and the opposite for 10 lower than expected.

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