Hey folks,
I'm having some computer issues that hopefully I'll resolve soon so I can get back to doing video signals probably tomorrow. In the meantime I'll sumarize the developments in text. For a look at the charts for some context in where I saw things going as of Friday (they're going there!) watch this video: 04-17-2009.swf In any case, the major break of 1.3090 continues to fuel fundamental pressure across the board for risk aversion which means USD and JPY strength. On the fundamental front, things are breaking down with renewed concern over financials largely sparked by a leak of the stress test results by Turner Radio Network. While the authenticity of the leaked report is quite dubious, the numbers were incredibly grim and it helped spur a wave of selling to continue our biases short from Friday's signal. In addition, the support of the channel we had been watching on stocks broke this morning at 848 on the S&P futures and we have a very clear breakout to the downside. This downside move should find support and become a buying opportunity in the 750-800 range. For Tuesday's news:
0430 UK CPI m/m (headline) (0.2% expected) - A 0.2 deviation should work for a quick move, but holding on for a sustained move is only a 50-50 shot with varying pressures heading into UK's budget announcements tomorrow.
If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD should rise 40+ pips quickly
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips quickly
05:00 German ZEW (2.0 expected) - We might get a smaller move on a smaller deviation, but I'd prefer a larger surprise to make this one worthwhile.
If it comes out at +17 or higher, EUR/USD should gain 40 pips quickly and likely sustain the move higher or try to hold on to gains
If it comes out at -13 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 40 pips quickly and likely sustain the move lower
09:00 CAD Interest Rates (0.25 to 0.50% expected) - About 1/3 of economists are expecting a cut of 0.25%, while the majority see no change. A cut should send USD/CAD higher by 50 pips, while no cut may send USD/CAD a bit lower, but both will depend heavily on the commentary, so it's not an easy predictable trade.
21:30 AU CPI - This one has 6 different numbers released (often conflicting) and hasn't been the best trader lately. I would say look for an opportunity to short any decent rally here as sentiment has turned negative to AUD very quickly this week.
04:40AM EST update: The EU and GU pairs have bottomed out rather well and a more substantial pullback to or above 1.3000 on EU and 1.4700 on GBP/USD is likely to happen today. I think a big rally like that is a good opportunity to get short for the next potential wave down.
Thanks,
Sir Pips
I'm having some computer issues that hopefully I'll resolve soon so I can get back to doing video signals probably tomorrow. In the meantime I'll sumarize the developments in text. For a look at the charts for some context in where I saw things going as of Friday (they're going there!) watch this video: 04-17-2009.swf In any case, the major break of 1.3090 continues to fuel fundamental pressure across the board for risk aversion which means USD and JPY strength. On the fundamental front, things are breaking down with renewed concern over financials largely sparked by a leak of the stress test results by Turner Radio Network. While the authenticity of the leaked report is quite dubious, the numbers were incredibly grim and it helped spur a wave of selling to continue our biases short from Friday's signal. In addition, the support of the channel we had been watching on stocks broke this morning at 848 on the S&P futures and we have a very clear breakout to the downside. This downside move should find support and become a buying opportunity in the 750-800 range. For Tuesday's news:
0430 UK CPI m/m (headline) (0.2% expected) - A 0.2 deviation should work for a quick move, but holding on for a sustained move is only a 50-50 shot with varying pressures heading into UK's budget announcements tomorrow.
If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD should rise 40+ pips quickly
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips quickly
05:00 German ZEW (2.0 expected) - We might get a smaller move on a smaller deviation, but I'd prefer a larger surprise to make this one worthwhile.
If it comes out at +17 or higher, EUR/USD should gain 40 pips quickly and likely sustain the move higher or try to hold on to gains
If it comes out at -13 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 40 pips quickly and likely sustain the move lower
09:00 CAD Interest Rates (0.25 to 0.50% expected) - About 1/3 of economists are expecting a cut of 0.25%, while the majority see no change. A cut should send USD/CAD higher by 50 pips, while no cut may send USD/CAD a bit lower, but both will depend heavily on the commentary, so it's not an easy predictable trade.
21:30 AU CPI - This one has 6 different numbers released (often conflicting) and hasn't been the best trader lately. I would say look for an opportunity to short any decent rally here as sentiment has turned negative to AUD very quickly this week.
04:40AM EST update: The EU and GU pairs have bottomed out rather well and a more substantial pullback to or above 1.3000 on EU and 1.4700 on GBP/USD is likely to happen today. I think a big rally like that is a good opportunity to get short for the next potential wave down.
Thanks,
Sir Pips